The NBA is back in full swing following the All-Star break, with nine games taking place across the Friday night slate. Tipping off at 7:30 p.m. ET, the Miami Heat will face the Atlanta Hawks in an Eastern Conference clash.
This is the third of four matchups between these two teams this season. Both sides have walked away with a victory to this point. The Heat produced a 126-111 win in the first matchup in December, while the Hawks bounced back with a 127-115 victory on February 3rd.
Looking at the odds for tonight’s game, the Heat enter as 3.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Hawks hold +136 odds of pulling off the outright upset, with the game total set at 244.5 points.
This article will look at a preview and prediction for the Friday night matchup.
Heat at Hawks Preview
The Miami Heat hold a 29-27 record, which currently slots them at eighth place in the Eastern Conference. This will mark their first matchup since the All-Star break, which they closed down with a victory over the Pelicans. On the season, the Heat have gone 32-24 against the spread, and the game total is 28-28 in the over/under.
Tyler Herro is considered probable for the matchup, while Norman Powell and Keshod Johnson are each questionable for tonight. Powell did, however, state at shootaround that he plans on suiting up. He is freshly off his first All-Star appearance and headlines Miami’s production with 23.0 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 2.6 assists, while shooting 39.6% on three-point attempts. Herro is not far behind with 21.9 points and 4.7 rebounds. Bam Adeabyo pitches in 18.4 points, 9.9 rebounds, and 2.8 assists, while Andrew Wiggins, Jaime Jaquez Jr, Kel’el Ware, Nikola Jovic and Davion Mitchell also play significant roles.
The Heat lead the NBA in pace and rank fifth in scoring by producing 119.6 points per game. Miami also ranks 17th in defensive rating, 21st in team field goal percentage, and 14th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 117.2 points per game against the Heat, which ranks 20th in the league. They also rank fourth in defensive rating, sixth in opponents’ field goal percentage, and sixth in opponents’ three-point percentage allowed.
The Atlanta Hawks enter with a 26-30 record on the season, which slots them in 10th place in the Eastern Conference. The franchise made a major decision to move on from Trae Young, and a new era of Hawks basketball launched this year. Atlanta is playing on the second night of a back-to-back after defeating the Philadelphia 76ers 117-107 last night. Overall, the Hawks have gone 27-30 against the spread, and the game total is 29-28 to the over/under.
With Trae Young no longer at the helm, Jalen Johnson has ascended to the franchise centerpiece. The 24-year-old earned his first All-Star appearance this season, posting averages of 23.3 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 8.2 assists per game on the season. Nickeil Alexander-Walker has had an impressive season in his first year in Atlanta, adding 20.1 points, 3.7 assists, and 3.6 rebounds per game. CJ McCollum was brought in as part of the return of the Trae Young trade, while Dyson Daniels, Zaccharie Risacher, Onyeka Okongwu, and Jock Landale play key roles in the rotation.
The Hawks are scoring 117.3 points per game, which ranks ninth in the NBA. They also rank 22nd in offensive rating, 11th in field goal percentage, and seventh in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 118.6 points per game against them, which ranks 25th in the NBA. Atlanta also ranks 16th in defensive rating, 21st in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 14th in opponents’ three-point percentage allowed.
Heat at Hawks Prediction, Best Bet
While both sides should have some relief from the All-Star break, the Hawks are playing on the second night of a back-to-back, which will be a factor. Atlanta looked sharp in their first game back, leading for 73% of the matchup and keeping the Sixers at an arms’ length throughout. The Heat have battled some injuries this season, but will be in full form tonight. My lean is toward Miami taking advantage of their extended rest and picking up the victory by more than the 3.5-point spread tonight.
However, I am backing the game total to go under the 244.5 game total. The under cashed in seven of the 10 games on last night’s slate as teams settle in after the All-Star break. Rest is valuable for the players, but also leads to some rust showing up. Particularly a team like the Heat, who are so dependent on pushing the pace and run fewer screens than any team in basketball, expect this to be evident.
The game total finished at 237 in the first game between these two sides and 242 in the second matchup. The game total went under the 250.5 line in the first game and over the 237.5 total in the second matchup based on DraftKings odds. Getting the number at 244.5 is too high for my liking based on the context of these teams.
While they are averaging 117.3 points per game on the season, the Hawks have been limited to 114.6 points per game across their last eight matchups. This includes being limited to as few as 86 points against the Rockets. The Heat has also seen its offensive production decrease as the season has progressed. Miami averaged 125.4 points per game in October and 122.9 points per game in November. But since this they have averaged 117.0 points per game in December, 117.3 points per game in January, and 118.5 points per game thus far in February. They were limited to just 96 points against the Celtics four games ago.
It feels as if both teams have overperformed a bit offensively in the early parts of the season. As the averages begin to correct themselves, expect there to be value betting on the under and for tonight to be a situation where this is the case. 244.5 total points is a high bar that these teams have yet to reach in a matchup against each other. Expect this to remain the case in the third matchup of the season and for the under to remain in play.
