We’re down to four teams. After an action-packed quarterfinal round, both Finland and Canada advanced to the semifinals on the backs of overtime wins. Now they’ll square off for a spot in the gold medal game.
Canada enters as a 2.5-goal favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, while Finland sits as a +380 underdog. The total is set at 5.5 goals.
Let’s dive into a preview, prediction, and pick for Thursday’s Olympic hockey matchup between Finland and Canada for a ticket to the gold medal game.
Finland vs. Canada prediction, preview
Team Canada rolled through the group stage with a 3-0-0 record, putting up a +17 goal differential. The pre-tournament favorites for the gold showed they mean business. That type of performance earned them a bye into the quarterfinals, where they faced a scrappy Czechia team. After a 5-0 victory in the group stage, most expected Canada to roll once again. But it was quite a contentious game.
The Czechs managed to take the lead midway through the third period, forcing Team Canada to buckle up down the stretch to preserve their medal hopes. Nick Suzuki tied things up with less than four minutes remaining in the game before Mitch Marner buried the overtime winner.
The Olympics are awfully strict about their highlights being posted online, so enjoy this dramatic retelling of the goal by NBA Paint:
Finland also had an excellent qualifying run. Their 2-0-1 record was punctuated by a sterling +11 goal differential, which got them through to the quarterfinals on a bye. But much like their Canadian counterparts, their quarterfinals match went down to the end. An upstart Swiss team raced out to a 2-0 lead in the first period, a lead they held deep into the third period. But the Finns responded with goals from Sebastian Aho and Miro Heiskanen, the latter coming with 1:12 left in the game. Artturi Lehkonen buried the overtime winner — and that was that. Now the Finns are that much closer to a medal.
The stars in this game are beyond counting, so it’s tough to narrow down who to watch. Finnish netminder Juuse Saros bears watching, as he has been one of the best goalies in the tourney. Juice is saving 93.81% of the shots coming his way while allowing only 1.49 goals per game. Against the best offensive talents in the world, they’ll need him in peak form. Their scoring depth also bears watching. Six Finnish skaters are averaging at least one point per game: Eetu Luostarinen, Kaapo Kakko, Joel Armia, Sebastian Aho, Mikko Rantanen, and Artturi Lehkonen. Depth is great, but sooner or later, the stars have to step up. Rantanen is the first name on that star list that they’ll look to for offense.
For Team Canada, it’s all about that top line. Despite the obvious talent and his NHL production, placing Macklin Celebrini on the top line at just 19 years old was a risky gambit. So far, that has paid off; Celebrini leads the tournament with five goals, while Connor McDavid leads with 11 points. That duo can power them to great things. Stopping them from breaking the game is priority number one, two, and three for the Finns.
Sidney Crosby’s status bears watching. He left Wednesday’s game with an undisclosed injury, and his status for the semifinals is up in the air. If he plays, he’ll be doing so while injured. That’s a big deal for a Canadian team that relies on his veteran presence.
If they have a weakness, it’s in the net. Jordan Binnington is a great, but not elite, goaltender. His 92.19% save percentage is sixth amongst the starting netminders in the tournament, and every goalie behind him has been eliminated. That’s a weakness the Finns will have to exploit if they want a real chance at winning.
Now we know the teams. The stakes speak for themselves. Who emerges triumphant and secures a spot in the gold medal game?
Finland vs. Canada pick, best bet
It’s so tough to pick against Team Canada. They’re not as dominant as usual, and Crosby’s injury looms large, but this is an overwhelming amount of talent. So far, few teams can get on their level. However, they have shown flaws, and this tournament has one overarching theme: the talent gap between Canada and the rest of the world is closing with each passing year.
Canada should find a way to victory. The McDavid-Celebrini combo is nigh unstoppable, and the defense is too good to let their offense down. But I believe the Finns can keep this close and make it a game worth remembering.
