The NBA returned from the All-Star break last night, which means we’re now going full speed into the season’s home stretch. With the playoff push approaching as crunch time nears, the games simply mean more for the teams still seeking to punch their tickets. There’s no question that the Denver Nuggets will be in the postseason picture, but a scrappy Portland Trail Blazers squad will have to fight tooth-and-nail to make it in. Tonight, these two will battle up in the Pacific Northwest.
Here’s a Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Friday’s game.
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers prediction, preview
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets dropped their first game back last night 115-114 to the Los Angeles Clippers. It was certainly a disappointing outcome, but the good news is that after a week off, the guys’ legs should be fresh for the second leg of the back-to-back tonight. At 35-21, Denver remains fourth in the Western Conference and will be one of the favorites to make a deep postseason run.
With a +4.1 NETRTG, the Nuggets rank eighth in the stat league-wide and fall all the way to 26th in pace, hardly a surprise for a Nikola Jokic-led team, though. Denver has the NBA’s top offense in both scoring and OFFRTG, posting 120.4 PPG with incredibly efficient shooting — the unit hits 49.2% of its shots and 39.4% of its three-point attempts, the second-best and best marks around the Association. The Nuggets also get to the charity stripe at the fourth-best rate, dish the ninth-most assists with 28.0 per game, and possess the league’s best AST/TO ratio at 2.20. The attack is elite in every way, but the defense does lack the same ability. The Nuggets sit 23rd in rebounds/game with 42.7 and allow 116.3 PPG, 19th overall. In terms of DEFRTG, they’re 24th in efficiency.
Of course, having the best player in the world in the starting five helps any offense. Nikola Jokic paces the roster in four major categories with 28.7 points, 12.3 rebounds, 10.7 assists and 1.4 steals per game, shooting 59.0% from the field and 42.0% from three. Co-star Jamal Murray earned his first All-Star berth with 25.7 points and 7.6 assists, also shooting 42.5% from beyond the arc. Beyond those two stars, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Cam Johnson post 14.1 and 11.5 PPG respectively, each shooting above 40% from distance as well.
For Denver, Murray (hamstring) is questionable. Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson both remain sidelined for the foreseeable future with hamstring issues of their own.
Portland Trail Blazers
As for the Trail Blazers, the young roster takes the floor for the first time since February 12 tonight. At 27-29, they’re 10th in the Western Conference and do maintain a 5.5-game lead over the No. 11 team, so falling out of the Play-In Tournament probably isn’t likely. However, there’s still work to be done, especially if they’re to rise in the standings.
Portland falls 20th in NETRTG at -1.9, but the team sits seventh in pace and typically pushes the tempo. The Trail Blazers have an above-average offense averaging 116.3 PPG, 12th in the league, though their OFFRTG comes in at 19th. What they lack in efficiency with the third-lowest FG% at 45.2% and 3P% at 34.2%, they make up for in volume with the seventh-most shot attempts per game. Portland also falls 26th in assists with an average of 24.7 dimes, while its AST/TO ratio of 1.43 ranks dead last. Two positives, though, are that the Trail Blazers post the fifth-most rebounds with 46.0 and second-best OREB% in the league as well. Of course, shoring up the defense will be a must to compete for anything meaningful, especially while giving up 118.3 PPG with the 20th-ranked DEFRTG.
The Trail Blazers are led by first-time All-Star Deni Avdija, whose 25.2 points and 6.6 assists are both team-highs. Veteran Jerami Grant posts 18.8 PPG, often coming off the bench, and fellow vet Jrue Holiday contributes 15.7 points and 6.5 assists as well. Perhaps the most interesting name to watch on this roster is center Donovan Clingan, who averages an 11.6-point, 11.5-rebound double-double in just 27.6 minutes a night.
Notably, second-leading scorer Shaedon Sharpe (calf) is out, leaving 21.4 PPG on the sidelined. Otherwise, Kris Murray (lumbar) and Matisse Thybulle (knee) are questionable for Portland.
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Trail Blazers as slim -1.5 home favorites tonight with -110 odds on the Moneyline. The Nuggets are also listed at -110 on the ML with the game total set at 239.5 combined points.
Even with Murray questionable, it’s still surprising to see the spread set this evenly. Both teams lean on offense, but Denver is far superior on that side of the ball and has two of the three best players in this game. Meanwhile, Portland will be without its second-highest scorer, meaning it’ll look for someone to step up in Sharpe’s absence. This could present a perfect opportunity for Scoot Henderson, who made his season debut just before the All-Star break and averages an efficient 14.0 points and 5.5 assists, albeit on a small sample of just four contests.
There should be plenty of points, but the Nuggets maintain a clear advantage and are capable of slowing the game down to a speed Jokic deems acceptable. If Murray doesn’t play, nearly all of the offense will flow at the multi-time MVP’s tempo, in which case the Trail Blazers may not see enough shot volume to help this game go over the total. I like Denver +1.5 and under 239.5 total points, so pick your poison.
Top pick: DEN Nuggets +1.5 (-120)
