During the NBA’s revamped All-Star Weekend, both Devin Booker and Victor Wembanyama were among the most notable players, though to varying extents. Booker nearly won his second three-point contest and ultimately helped Team USA Stars win the All-Star tournament, while Wembanyama set the tone with his aggression and stellar play during the tournament, ultimately finishing with 33 points and three blocks between his two games.
Tonight, both stars will face off in each’s first game of the season’s second half when Wembanyama’s San Antonio Spurs host Booker’s Phoenix Suns for an 8:30 p.m. ET matchup. It’ll take place in Austin, where the Spurs play two games every season in the hopes of growing their fan base.
San Antonio has a pretty clean injury report, with no member of its regular rotation listed. Meanwhile, Phoenix will be slightly shorthanded, as newly-acquired Cole Anthony won’t be available and neither will the suspended Dillon Brooks.
The Spurs are 7.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-290 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 229.5. The Suns are +235 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this potential playoff preview and offer a prediction.
Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs preview, prediction
The All-Star break could hardly have come at a better time for Phoenix, which has lost four of its last six games, including a pair of defeats by 20 or more points. But the Suns could be better in the long run now that Jalen Green, the centerpiece of the Kevin Durant deal, is on his way back towards full health, as he offers some additional self-creation and athleticism. The fact that Mark Williams is already at a career high in games played has helped offset Green’s unexpected injuries, especially given how efficient Williams has been in his limited role.
San Antonio, meanwhile, entered the All-Star break on a six-game win streak, with all but one of the wins coming by 10 or more points, and it has climbed within three games of the Oklahoma City Thunder atop the Western Conference. Area 51 is thriving: in the win over the Los Angeles Lakers, Wembanyama had one of the most impressive offensive games of his career, becoming the first player ever to record 37 points and eight rebounds in the first half, and against the Dallas Mavericks, Stephon Castle became the second player in NBA history to record a 40-point triple-double while shooting at least 75% from the field.
Suns at Spurs pick, best bet
Phoenix should be able to withstand Brooks’ absence tonight: despite the Canadian putting up borderline All-Star numbers, averaging 21.2 points per game, it has actually been 5.2 points per 100 possessions better with him off the court, a difference driven by the defense. This is shaping up to be a defensive battle: even with Brooks’ negative presence, the Suns have had the league’s 10th-best defense, and the Spurs rank third. A defensive battle should be a major advantage for San Antonio, which has the world’s single most fearsome defender in Wembanyama.
It’s not a coincidence that, since Wembanyama returned from a calf strain on December 13, the Spurs have been elite defensively in both paint volume and efficiency, allowing the fifth-fewest attempts from the restricted area and the fourth-lowest percentage, which could exacerbate issues for a Phoenix team that struggles mightily to get downhill as is. San Antonio has also done a great job getting to the rim, attempting the third-most restricted-area tries in the last 10 games, and Wembanyama has made the Spurs an elite finishing unit. The Frenchman should be able to take advantage of his interior touches against the Suns, who have allowed the fifth-highest percentage in the restricted area this season.
San Antonio should be able to stretch its advantage on the interior through its rebounding, as the Spurs rank sixth in overall rebounding percentage this season and Wembanyama individually ranks eighth in total rebounds per 100 possessions. Transition play could be a neutral factor: Phoenix has averaged among the most points off of turnovers, but San Antonio has been pretty careful with the ball. Both teams are also capable of running fast-breaks on both sides of the ball, though the Spurs have been slightly more effective on both ends. San Antonio has also been better at drawing contact and not fouling defensively.
The Suns will need to shoot the lights out in order to make up for all of their other disadvantages, and to be fair, they’ve posted the league’s 10th-highest three-point percentage and the Spurs the ninth-lowest. That isn’t entirely a matter of luck, either: they’ve generated uncontested triples at the league’s sixth-highest rate, while San Antonio is down near the middle of the pack. On the other end of the floor, Phoenix has also allowed the second-fewest wide-open three-point attempts, so it could make life difficult for the Spurs’ shooters, though it might be slightly worse in that aspect without Brooks, who ranks second on the team in contested three-pointers per game.
If the Suns can shoot the ball well, they have the recipe for an upset, but it’s so hard to pick a team that struggles with interior defense against one of the league’s best big men, especially if he comes out of the gates aggressively. San Antonio also has a pretty formidable home-court advantage thanks to the Jackals fan section, which will be in attendance in Austin tonight.
