There is just one midweek Premier League fixture this week, and it comes between bottom-of-the-league Wolves and the league-leading Arsenal.
Arsenal are a -340 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook for this one, with a draw available at +475 odds. Wolves are listed at +900 odds to pull off the home upset and take all three points. This is my prediction and pick for the Premier League tilt between Arsenal and Wolves.
Wolves vs. Arsenal prediction, preview
Arsenal Preview
Arsenal are sitting atop the Premier League, but now have just a four-point cushion over Manchester City. Against bottom-of-the-league Wolves, Arsenal have no choice but to pick up all three points if they want to be serious league leaders. Arsenal have been by far the best team in the league defensively this season. They have allowed just 18 goals in 26 matches this season, six fewer than anyone else in the league. Arsenal have been brilliant on set pieces and have benefited from an unusually large number of own goals. However, they still have issues scoring from open play at times compared to the other top teams in the league. Arsenal ranks sixth in the Premier League in non-penalty expected goals this season.
Wolves Preview
Wolves have been dreadful this season. They are on pace for one of the worst-ever Premier League campaigns, sitting with just nine points at this stage of the season. That is half the amount of points of Burnley, who sit in 19th place. They have just one win the entire season and can’t seem to find an answer anywhere. Wolves have been poor all around, but scoring goals remains the primary issue. They have scored just 16 goals in 26 matches and don’t have a single player with more than two goals on the season.
Wolves vs. Arsenal Pick
It’s unlikely that Wolves will be able to make any impact on the title race in this match. My best bet is on under 2.5 goals in this one. Arsenal are the best team in the league defensively by far, and Wolves are the worst goal-scoring team in the league by far. It’s more likely than not that Wolves don’t score a goal in this match. However, Arsenal could struggle to score themselves. Wolves have been much better defensively over the past couple of months. In 12 of their past 13 matches in all competitions, Wolves have held their opponent to two goals or fewer. Despite their awful record, they are not getting battered by three or four goals. In five of Wolves’ past six matches, the total goals scored have been under 2.5. That trend should continue in this one, with goals coming at a premium between the league leaders and the basement dwellers.
