An SEC matchup with major ramifications is on tap this evening. #19 Vanderbilt (21-4, 8-4) has enjoyed one of the best seasons in program history. At this point, any win against an above-average opponent will give the Commodores an NCAA Tournament seeding boost. For Missouri (17-8, 7-5), this evening’s matchup is crucial for any hopes of a March Madness appearance. During their last time out, the Tigers suffered a 17-point defeat to Texas. They’ll look to turn things around at home on Wednesday.
Vanderbilt enters tonight as 3.5-point favorites (-118) over Missouri. The total is set at 153.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Wednesday’s game between the Commodores and the Tigers.
Vanderbilt vs. Missouri prediction, preview
Balance is what separates college basketball contenders from pretenders. In that regard, Vanderbilt has the makings of a title-winning team. Per KenPom, the Commodores rank 12th in adjusted offensive efficiency (124.9) and 19th in adjusted defensive efficiency (96.8). Mark Byington’s squad leans heavily on Tyler Tanner. The sophomore guard has been one of the nation’s most lethal playmakers all season. Through 25 games, he’s averaging 18.3 points, 3.5 rebounds and 5.4 assists. Tanner has had even greater responsibility on offense since Duke Miles suffered a knee injury in January. Fellow guard Frankie Collins (knee) is also listed as out tonight.
It’s not just Tanner that has stepped up for Vandy. Opposing defenses need to account for names such as Tyler Nickel (14.8 PPG), Devin McGlockton (10.2 PPG, 6.9 REB) and Jalen Washington (9.0 PPG, 5.6 REB). A fast, energetic offense ensures plenty of different players remain involved on offense. On the other end of the floor, the Commodores have held opponents to just 73.6 points per game, fourth-lowest in the SEC. Unsurprisingly, Vanderbilt ranks 12th in the nation with a +14.8 average scoring margin. The school comes into this one having earned a victory in five of its last six contests.
All that being said, earning a win tonight will be a challenge for the home team. Still, these Tigers certainly aren’t pushovers. After all, they’ve already earned wins over high-caliber squads such as #12 Florida, Kentucky and Texas A&M. However, Missouri is only 6-8 combined against Quad 1 and 2 opponents. Another impressive victory would certainly improve the odds on Selection Sunday.
In theory, a 17-8 record while playing in the SEC should be enough to ease most concerns. Unfortunately, the advanced metrics aren’t very bullish on Mizzou. The Tigers are only 55th in net rating (+13.93) on KenPom. That’s due in large part to a lackluster adjusted defensive efficiency, ranking 97th in the nation (104.8). Missouri’s +5.7 average margin of victory is only good enough for 72nd in college basketball.
If there’s one area where the Tigers appear to hold an advantage, its down low. Forward Mark Mitchell is a problem, accounting for 17.2 points and 5.6 rebounds per game. 6’7″ Jacob Crews (10.2 PPG, 4.4 REB) and 7’0″ Shawn Phillips (7.7 PPG, 5.2 REB) help make Missouri formidable on the glass. The team has recorded a 53.5% total rebounding rate, 32nd-best in the nation. In comparison, Vanderbilt’s 51.5% mark is tied for 108th.
Vanderbilt vs. Missouri pick, best bet
Boxing out will be crucial for the Commodores this evening. Regardless, it’s difficult to envision a loss for the visitors tonight. Missouri has out-performed its numbers, and should be seen as a below-average SEC unit. In comparison, Vanderbilt’s well-rounded roster offers multiple avenues towards securing a win. On a modest 3.5-point spread, I’ll take my chances with the favorites on Wednesday.
