Two seasons ago, Bayer Leverkusen burst fully onto the global football scene with a near-invincible treble, thwarted only in the Europa League final against Atalanta. While many members of that Die Werkself team have since left, the memory remains, and Leverkusen continues to be a major factor on the European football stage, advancing to the Champions League knockout stage for the second straight season.
Die Werkself will begin its two-legged tie in the Knockout Playoffs at 3 p.m. ET (10 p.m. local) against Greek outfit Olympiakos in Athens. A return leg is scheduled for the same time next Tuesday in Leverkusen.
Thrylos is a +160 favorite to win the opening leg (+120 to advance to the Round of 16) at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Die Werkself is +170 (-155 to advance). There are +240 odds that the teams will return to Germany level on goals.
Olympiakos vs. Leverkusen prediction, pick
Leverkusen enters the Knockout Playoffs in solid form, having recorded three wins, one draw, and one loss in the final five games of the League Phase after suffering a 7-2 defeat against Paris Saint-Germain in Matchweek 3. That one defeat, though, came against Olympiakos in Athens, so there’s definitely recent precedent for the Greek side to lean on. Thrylos made a late charge up the table to qualify on the final three weeks, posting three consecutive wins, though the other two teams it beat — cellar-dwelling Kairat Almaty and already-eliminated Ajax — weren’t very impressive.
Olympiakos has some pretty recognizable names on its roster: Ayoub El Kaabi was instrumental in Morocco’s run to the AFCON final, and both he and Iranian legend Mehdi Taremi have scored two goals in the Champions League. Gelson Martins leads the team with three goals, and Taremi, Chiquinho, and Rodinei have two assists apiece. All in all, though, Thrylos’ attack wasn’t great: it amassed the second-fewest expected goals among teams to advance to the knockout stages, but it did finish more clinically than expected based on shot quality. On the other end, its raw defensive numbers didn’t look great, but besides blowouts against the two Spanish giants, it didn’t allow more than two goals in any game and ranked in the top 10 in tackles, interceptions, and clearances. Olympiakos also allowed among the fewest fast-breaks and won more than half of its ground duels and aerial duels. Goalkeeper Kostas Tzolakis, though inconsistent overall, made six saves against Die Werkself the first time these teams met.
Central defensive midfielder Álex Grimaldo, one of the holdovers from the Bundesliga-winning team, leads Leverkusen with four goals in the Champions League, and Aleix García, Malik Tillman, and Patrik Schick have contributed two each, with the primary playmaking duty falling to 20-year-old Algerian Ibrahim Maza. But this new-look attack just wasn’t good enough: Die Werkself finished the League Phase 18th in expected goals and just 24th in shots on target, and it didn’t score more than two goals in any of its first seven matches. It was solid defensively, allowing just seven goals in non-PSG games, though the fact that it ranked eighth-to-last in ground duel win rate and in the bottom 10 in both tackles and interceptions weren’t solely the result of the blowout against the title-holders. Backup goalkeeper Janis Blaswich, who will start in place of the injured Mark Flekken, has some experience in the Champions League and has kept two clean sheets in his four Bundesliga starts.
It should be a highly tactical affair, with each coach seeking to leverage his team’s advantages. Leverkusen, which has been one of the best passing teams in the competition, should be better-equipped than most to deal with Thrylos’ high press. In response, Olympiakos will have to hope that its defense holds and strike on the counter, which has been Die Werkself’s biggest weakness, given that it has allowed four goals from fast-breaks. This style of play hasn’t been Thrylos’ strength: while it has scored twice on fast-breaks, it only managed to generate four, so it’s hardly a guarantee to score past Flekken. Ultimately, Leverkusen can only play in one way — it, too, was quite poor in fast-break situations — so as long as Olympiakos’ press holds, this could be a tight, defensive affair.
