Wednesday’s college hoops slate includes an SEC clash between the Tennessee Volunteers and Oklahoma Sooners. While the Vols have put forth a quality campaign and ride a couple of wins into tonight’s contest, the Sooners have largely struggled through the conference slate but have now won two straight games as well. Someone’s streak, albeit brief, will come to an end in Knoxville. Which side will it be?
Here’s a prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Oklahoma vs. Tennessee on Wednesday, February 18.
Oklahoma vs. Tennessee prediction, preview
Oklahoma Sooners
Talk about an era to forget. The Sooners have won no more than 20 games throughout the five-year Porter Moser era and have made the NCAA Tournament just once over that span. Things likely won’t change much now as they’re just 13-12 and 3-9 in conference play. Oklahoma’s record against Quad 1 opponents is just 2-8, and the team is only 2-4 against Quad 2 sides as well.
The Sooners fall 53rd in the latest KenPom rankings with a NETRTG of +14.18. The offense is elite, sitting 26th in ORTG with 83.4 PPG, 33rd in the nation. They shoot 46.8% from the field and 35.7% from three, but put up plenty of shots despite falling outside the top 200 in adjusted tempo. They also dish 14.5 assists per game with a 1.45 AST/TO ratio, the latter of which ranks 54th. Oklahoma pulls down 36.5 rebounds per contest, and defensively, allows 77.7 PPG to opponents. That defense is a problem, especially at 155th in DRTG.
Tennessee Volunteers
The Vols, meanwhile, have seen much more success lately. They’re fourth in the SEC at 8-4 in conference play and 18-7 overall, and they were nationally ranked earlier in the campaign. Rick Barnes’ team has made it to at least the Regional Semifinal in the NCAA Tournament in each of the last three years and has appeared in March in five straight campaigns as well, and they’re on track to do so again. While just 4-7 against Quad 1 sides, the Volunteers have gone 5-0 against Quad 2s and are also unbeaten against lower teams.
Tennessee plays strong ball on both sides of the floor, ranking 19th via KenPom with a +25.52 NETRTG. The Vols average 81.0 PPG with the 39th-ranked ORTG, shooting 46.9% from the field and 35.2% from beyond the arc. They don’t take many three-pointers, but the offense makes up for the lack of perimeter volume with the 28th-most FTA per game. They also move the ball, posting 17.5 assists per contest with a 1.37 AST/TO ratio. On the glass, Tennessee dominates with 43.3 boards per game, third-most in the nation while leading all of college basketball in OREB%. The unit also allows 69.3 PPG to opponents with the 16th-best DRTG, too.
Oklahoma vs. Tennessee pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists Oklahoma as an 11.5 favorite at home tonight with -750 odds to win outright. Oklahoma holds +525 odds of a Moneyline victory with the game total at 149.5.
Outside of a pair of losses to Kentucky, which appears to have the Vols’ number, Tennessee hasn’t lost across its last nine games dating back to January 10. The Volunteers are quite formidable and assert their will on the glass to create extra possessions, a strategy which has seemed to work particularly on the offensive boards. That mean extra putbacks for second-chance points, which could prove crucial against an Oklahoma roster with decent size in the frontcourt. Winning the rebounding battle will be key tonight, as will slowing down the opposing offense since shutting either side down outright appears unrealistic.
Thankfully for Tennessee, the home team does have the pieces to bother the Sooners’ shooters. The Volunteers hold opponents to the 27th-lowest eFG% at 47.1% with a FG% of just 40.4% and 3P% of only 29.9%. With plenty of defensive power, Tennessee should have a real shot to make life difficult for an Oklahoma unit that usually scores in buckets. On the flip side, the Sooners just don’t have the defense themselves to hang in there in this matchup. Their only hope is to push the tempo and win in a race to 90 points or so, but the odds of that working tonight remain slim. I like Tennessee to cover thanks to a +11.8 scoring margin and strong home crowd in the arena.
