Just about two-thirds of the NBA regular season has been completed, with each team having played between 53 and 56 of its 82 games. By now, teams are eying either the playoffs or the top of the lottery, with tanking a much-discussed phenomenon this season because of the strong 2026 Draft class.
Still, some teams are closer to a title than others, and some teams are more in need of a savior from the 2026 Draft. Below, I’ve broken all 30 teams down into tiers, starting with those at the bottom of the standings. Next to each team is its current record and its odds of winning the 2025-26 NBA title at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tier 8: All Eyes on AJ
30. Sacramento Kings (12-44, +500000)
29. Washington Wizards (14-39, +500000)
28. Brooklyn Nets (15-38, +500000)
27. Indiana Pacers (15-40, +500000)
26. Utah Jazz (18-38, +400000)
25. Dallas Mavericks (19-35, +200000)
24. Memphis Grizzlies (20-33, +300000)
All seven of these teams recognize that they don’t have the firepower to win a playoff series and are desperate to end up with among the league’s worst records with the aim of securing a top-three pick in a draft that includes BYU’s AJ Dybantsa, Kansas’ Darryn Peterson, and Duke’s Cameron Boozer, all of whom are enjoying strong freshman seasons at their various colleges.
Of the seven, Sacramento is in the worst form, losing each of its last 14 games prior to the All-Star break, and it recently ruled both Zach LaVine (finger) and Domantas Sabonis (knee) out for the season. Washington, Indiana, Utah, and Dallas are also taking cautious approaches with their injured stars, with the Wizards’ Anthony Davis (hand), the Jazz’s Jaren Jackson Jr. (knee), and the Mavericks’ Kyrie Irving (knee) all set to miss the rest of the season. The Pacers are in the most precarious draft position — their pick will go to the LA Clippers if it falls between fourth and 10th overall — but they project to be championship contenders in 2026-27 once Tyrese Haliburton (Achilles) returns, with or without a top pick.
Brooklyn and Memphis simply don’t have enough talent to win many games, even without sitting players. The Nets somewhat surprisingly held on to Michael Porter Jr. at the trade deadline, and given that he averages 25.0 points and 7.2 rebounds per game while shooting 38.5% from beyond the arc, he could lead to some wins, but the talent around him just isn’t there. That’s also the case for the Grizzlies, who couldn’t find a trade partner for Ja Morant after sending Jackson to Utah. Memphis dealt both Jackson and Jock Landale and won’t have a reliable center on its roster until Zach Edey returns from the stress reaction in his ankle (which could easily be the start of the 2026-27 season).
Tier 7: Should Have Its Eyes on AJ, But…
23. New Orleans Pelicans (15-41, +400000)
Despite the Pelicans’ having a tier to themselves, they’re not necessarily better than the Jazz, the Grizzlies, and Dallas right now. However, all of those teams project to tumble down the standings as they seek a lottery pick, and New Orleans — which traded away its unprotected first-round pick in the 2023 Draft to rise 10 places and draft Derik Queen — has no incentive to lose. The Pelicans may well continue to lose anyway — they rank sixth-to-last in net rating despite one of the healthiest seasons of Zion Williamson’s career — but they won’t be rewarded for it with Dybantsa, Peterson, or Boozer.
Tier 6: What’s the Vision Here?
22. Chicago Bulls (24-31, +250000)
21. Milwaukee Bucks (23-30, +100000)
20. Portland Trail Blazers (27-29, +150000)
19. Miami Heat (29-27, +20000)
18. Golden State Warriors (29-26, +12000)
17. LA Clippers (26-28, +40000)
For various reasons, none of these teams has anywhere near a championship-caliber roster, and none of them is even on a particularly stable path to contention.
The Bulls made a couple of decent moves at the trade deadline, but between Josh Giddey, Tre Jones, Jaden Ivey, Anfernee Simons, Collin Sexton, and Rob Dillingham, they simply have too many point guards and no center. The Bucks have little secondary scoring or playmaking without Giannis Antetokounmpo. Portland has too many centers, with Robert Williams III remaining on the roster alongside 2024 first-round pick Donovan Clingan and 2025 first-round pick Yang Hansen.
The Heat, Warriors, and Clippers all have too much talent not to make the playoffs but likely not enough to win a series. LA and Golden State each have a top-10 player at or near the peak of his powers, but with the Clippers trading away James Harden and Ivica Zubac at the trade deadline and the Warriors’ Jimmy Butler III tearing his ACL, both teams find themselves in the dreaded middle. Miami will get Tyler Herro back at some point, which might help it pick up a few useless wins.
Tier 5: I See the Vision, But…
16. Atlanta Hawks (26-30, +60000)
15. Orlando Magic (28-25, +12000)
14. Phoenix Suns (32-23, +25000)
Each of these teams has some questions and are unlikely to win a playoff series this season, but at least there’s some glimmer of hope for each of them.
The Hawks’ basic roster construction makes sense; with a starting lineup of Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels, Zaccharie Risacher, Jalen Johnson, and Onyeka Okongwu, they have the length to bother opponents defensively and just enough shooting to survive offensively. The Magic have a strong defensive identity, led by Jalen Suggs and Wendell Carter Jr., and they finished second in defensive rating in 2024-25 before adding Desmond Bane, a good shooter and solid perimeter defender. Phoenix is also defense-first, as it has ranked 10th on that side of the ball behind the veteran leadership of Dillon Brooks and a bruising center in Mark Williams.
This tier isn’t higher is because each team has some glaring flaws. Atlanta likely can’t jump into contention until Daniels remembers how to shoot threes and until Risacher, the first overall pick in 2024, develops into a plus on either side of the ball. Orlando has still struggled to shoot even after adding Bane, ranking 27th in three-point percentage, and its star duo of Paolo Banchero and and Franz Wagner has both injury and fit concerns. The Suns, meanwhile, lack the top-end talent to compete in the Western Conference, especially with Devin Booker canning his threes at just a 31.1% clip.
Tier 4: Could Win One Series, Likely Won’t Win Two
13. Philadelphia 76ers (30-24, +4000)
12. Los Angeles Lakers (33-21, +3500)
11. Toronto Raptors (32-23, +25000)
10. Charlotte Hornets (26-29, +20000)
9. Houston Rockets (33-20, +2200)
Winning multiple playoff series requires being well-rounded, and these teams simply have some exploitable flaws.
In theory, the 76ers have a reliable top scoring option in Tyrese Maxey, wing defenders in Paul George (once he returns from his suspension) and VJ Edgecombe, and an all-time great at center in Joel Embiid, but Embiid’s and George’s health is always a question. Los Angeles has an all-time scoring hub and playoff riser in Luka Dončić, but no team has ever won a title with a defense as bad as the Lakers’ 23rd-ranked unit. Toronto has a good enough defense to win a series, but it doesn’t have a reliable center and Scottie Barnes’ jumper is holding him back from being a bone fide top-10 player. Despite having the league’s second-best net rating since January 1, the Hornets don’t have enough playoff experience.
That brings me to Houston, which I debated putting in Tier 2. With two All-Stars (Kevin Durant and Alperen Şengün) and an All-Defensive First Team honoree in 2024-25 (Amen Thompson), the Rockets definitely have enough talent to win multiple playoff series, and they still rank in the top six on both sides of the ball. But Houston also ranks second-to-last in assist percentage and 24th in true shooting percentage, and since Steven Adams went down for the season, the Rockets have been merely great, not historic, on the boards. They can rise two tiers only if Fred VanVleet returns from his torn ACL and recaptures some of his old form.
Tier 3: Who Will Win the East?
8. Cleveland Cavaliers (34-21, +1200)
7. Boston Celtics (35-19, +1500)
6. New York Knicks (35-20, +1300)
5. Detroit Pistons (40-13, +1500)
These four teams are pretty tightly-matched, and despite the fact that none of them are likely to be favored in a matchup against the Western Conference’s top-two teams, it wouldn’t be a stretch to see any of them win a title.
The Cavaliers are the most recent risers, having won nine of their last 10 games to climb into fourth in the East, and they’ve had the league’s second-best net rating across that span. However, they also have playoff demons to exorcise, as Donovan Mitchell has never made the conference finals and James Harden’s poor playoff reputation precedes him. Boston, meanwhile, could rise up this list if Jayson Tatum (Achilles) ultimately returns, but it’s unlikely that Tatum will be anywhere near 100%. The Celtics arguably give up too many threes and still lack some shooting, since Derrick White and Payton Pritchard have struggled somewhat this season.
New York and — to a greater extent — Detroit are a cut above. The Knicks have been hot as of late, posting a dominant plus-15.5 net rating in the last 10 games, and with a pair of primary scorers in Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns and elite wing stoppers in Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby, New York has a deep, well-rounded roster and playoff experience. The Pistons’ defense is even better, as Ausar Thompson is one of the league’s most intimidating rovers, Jalen Duren headlines one of the league’s best rim-protection units, and Cade Cunningham is a solid defender given his offensive responsibility.
Tier 2: Will Give Oklahoma City a Fright
4. Minnesota Timberwolves (34-22, +3500)
3. Denver Nuggets (35-20, +450)
2. San Antonio Spurs (38-16, +1400)
Seeing any of these teams come out of the West would be somewhat of a surprise, given the defending champion Thunder’s strong roster and playoff experience. However, these teams are one Shai Gilgeous-Alexander off day away from a title.
Minnesota has had the worst regular season so far, but it’s only one and a half games behind the Nuggets, and it has been a top-10 unit on both sides of the ball. Oklahoma City loves to protect the paint and force opponents to beat them from deep, and Jaden McDaniels and Ayo Dosunmu have both made more than 45% of their triples this season. Anthony Edwards and Gilgeous-Alexander are arguably the two best two-way three-level scoring threats in the league, but Edwards is an even better three-point shooter and Rudy Gobert is an even better rim protector than Chet Holmgren.
Denver has the league’s best player, and with Nikola Jokić on the floor, it always has a chance in any series. Jokić averaged 28.4 points and 13.9 rebounds per game in the team’s seven-game second-round series against the Thunder last season, and if not for some poor fourth-quarter shooting in Games 4 and 5, there’s a decent chance that the Nuggets would’ve lifted the Larry O’Brien Trophy. However, this Denver team has ranked just 24th on defense, and Aaron Gordon’s injury isn’t the sole reason.
I somewhat considered putting San Antonio in first, given that it has beaten Oklahoma City in four of the teams’ five matchups this season. The Spurs have had a top-10 unit on both sides of the ball and have the likely Defensive Player of the Year in Victor Wembanyama, who was arguably the best player in the gold-medal match against the US National Team in the 2024 Olympic Games. However, San Antonio still needs to add a shooter — it ranks just 22nd in three-point percentage — and Wembanyama could still afford to work on his shot selection.
Tier 1: Going Back to Back?
1. Oklahoma City Thunder (42-14, +135)
The Thunder haven’t been quite as convincing this season as they were in 2024-25, as they’ve already matched their loss total (14) and are currently without Gilgeous-Alexander as he recovers from an abdominal strain. The hamstring injuries that have limited Jalen Williams to only 26 games are concerning, as is Luguentz Dort’s regression as both a shooter and a perimeter defender. I wouldn’t take them at +135 odds and far prefer the Spurs for value.
But this team just won 68 games and returned every member of its core. Holmgren has improved his two-point efficiency while remaining arguably the world’s second-best defender. Ajay Mitchell, who wasn’t a member of the playoff rotation last season and is now a Sixth Man of the Year contender. Nikola Topić, a projected top-10 pick in 2024 before tearing his ACL and subsequently getting diagnosed with testicular cancer, made his NBA debut in the last game before the All-Star break and could easily crack the playoff rotation.
Repeating in the NBA is hard, and Oklahoma City’s comparative struggles this season have demonstrated as much. It’s just hard to say that the Thunder aren’t well-suited to give it a good fight.
