Last season, Inter Milan came within 450 minutes of winning a treble, but it lost in the semifinals of the Coppa Italia, blew its Serie A lead in the penultimate match, and fell 5-0 to Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League final, ultimately going trophy-less. Thus, this season has been about rebounding from heartbreak for the Nerazzurri, and so far, they have. They lead the Serie A by eight points over their intra-city rivals and have advanced to the Champions League Knockout Playoffs.
The do-or-die portion of the European season begins at 3 p.m. ET (9 p.m. local) with the first leg of the Knockout Playoff tie against Bodø/Glimt deep in the Arctic Circle. The teams will rematch next Tuesday at the same time at the San Siro in Milan.
Inter is a -135 favorite to win (-550 to advance to the Round of 16) at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Bodø is +340 (+380 to advance). There are +310 odds that the teams will draw.
Inter Milan vs. Bodo Glimt prediction, pick
After the first four weeks of matches, the Nerazzurri looked as if they wouldn’t need to play in the Knockout Playoffs, as they won each of their first four matches, albeit against fairly weak opponents. But their schedule toughened up with matches against Atlético Madrid, Liverpool, and Arsenal, and they dropped all three to take themselves out of the top eight. A win over Dortmund on the final day of the League Phase wasn’t enough to move them back into position for a bye. As for Glimt, three draws and three losses in its first six matches seemed to condemn it to elimination, but a miraculous charge over the final Matchweeks (wins over Manchester City and Los Colchoneros) allowed it to secure knockout qualification on goal difference. Bodø shouldn’t be underestimated, especially at home.
Glimt’s attacking options were on full display throughout the competition. Eight different players found the back of the net at least once, and Jens Petter Hauge (four goals), Kasper Waarst Hogh (three), and Sondre Brunstad Fet (two) each scored multiple times. The advanced stats were similarly kind to Bodø: it managed the ninth-most expected goals, the fourth-most among teams playing in the playoff round, and it ranked second in expected goals per shot and tied for first in goals on fast breaks. Arguably, Glimt got unlucky not to have scored more, hitting the post four times. But the issue is that Bodø’s opponents were similarly strong in the attack, as it allowed the second-most expected goals and most shots in the box, winning both ground and aerial duels at a pretty low rate. Glimt’s goalkeeper, Nikita Haikin, was its true hero, as he recorded 11 more saves than any other player (including 12 in the defeat against Juventus alone) and helped his team finish second in goals minus expected goals.
Haikin will have a difficult challenge this afternoon against Inter, which has had a pretty strong attack. Lautaro Martínez leads the team with four goals in the Champions League and 18 in all competitions, but he’s hardly alone: Marcus Thuram also has 12 in all competitions, and defender Denzel Dumfries — the hero in the Nerazzurri’s epic semifinal win over Barcelona last season — has contributed two in the Champions League already. All in all, Inter ranked sixth in expected goals (narrowly ahead of Bodø), and it put consistent pressure on the opposing goalie, finishing seventh in touches in the box. The Nerazzurri’s defense was much better than Glimt’s, as they allowed the fourth-fewest expected goals, as well as shots in the box at the third-lowest rate. They also ranked first in ground duel win rate, third in aerial duel win rate, and sixth in tackles, and Yann Sommer has been strong between the sticks in both Serie A an the Champions League.
Since both of these teams play pretty deliberately, Inter’s stronger defense and tighter passing should give it the edge. However, Bodø has been clinical with its passes in the right spots, keeping pace with the Nerazzurri by success rate with both passes into the final third and crosses, and it could get one or two past Sommer. If Inter is willing to press more, it could coax some easy opportunities out of mistake-prone Glimt, but that’s not Simone Inzaghi’s way. The Nerazzurri should still do a better job containing Bodø’s attack than most, but nothing is a guarantee in the Arctic Circle.
