The Premier League’s Newcastle United travel to Azerbaijan to take on FK Qarabag in the first leg of a Champions League playoff tie.
Newcastle is a -255 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook for this one, with a draw available at +400 odds. Qarabag is listed at +650 odds to pull off the upset. This is my prediction and pick for the Champions League tilt between Newcastle and Qarabag.
Qarabag vs. Newcastle prediction, preview
Newcastle Preview
It has been an inconsistent season for Newcastle. After winning a domestic trophy last season and qualifying for the Champions League, expectations were high. However, Newcastle lost its star striker, Alexander Isak, in addition to missing out on some transfers it had hoped to secure. That has brought a mixed bag of results this season. Newcastle is currently in 10th place in the Premier League and finished 12th in the Champions League league phase. That was only two points off the top-eight automatic qualifiers for the Round of 16. So, it was a solid European campaign for Newcastle, and it is now significant favorites to advance past Qarabag into the Round of 16.
Qarabag Preview
Qarabag was a surprise team to make it through to the knockout playoffs this season. While it is big underdogs to make it past Newcastle, even making it this far is a great achievement for the club. It currently sits in second place in the Azerbaijan Premier League and plays in a ground that only hosts 5,800 people. Qarabag does have the most European success of any Azerbaijani club. It was the first club to make it to the Group Stage of the Champions League in 2017, and then made it to the Round of 16 in the 2023-24 Europa League competition. Qarabag got some great results in the Champions League league phase, including wins over Benfica and Frankfurt, and a draw against Chelsea.
Qarabag vs. Newcastle Pick
My best bet for this match is on both teams to score. This prop can be found at -115 on DraftKings Sportsbook. Qarabag has a small chance of making it out of this tie and advancing to the Round of 16. However, if it needs to overcome a deficit in the second leg at St. James’ Park, that becomes an even more unlikely feat. That means Qarabag needs to be aggressive in this game and try to score goals. Qarabag is capable of scoring goals. It led all clubs in goals during the qualifying phase. It has also had issues conceding, however. In the league phase, it gave up 21 goals, tied for the second-most in the competition. Newcastle will almost surely find a way through to score at least one goal, but Qarabag should get one past Newcastle as well. Newcastle conceded in three of its four away matches during the league phase.
