A massive Big 12 showdown is on tap tonight in Tucson. #4 Arizona (23-2, 10-2) has been nothing short of dominant this season, looking the part of a national championship contender. However, the Wildcats have suffered two straight losses to #8 Kansas and #13 Texas Tech. They’ll attempt to turn things around tonight against #23 BYU (19-6, 7-5). Can the Cougars and top NBA Draft prospect AJ Dybantsa earn an upset in primetime?
Arizona enters Wednesday as 12.5-point favorites (-115) over BYU. The total is set at 162.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for this evening’s game between the Cougars and the Wildcats.
BYU vs. Arizona prediction, preview
Despite entering the year with massive expectations, things haven’t gone smoothly for BYU. Make no mistake: the Cougars are poised for an NCAA Tournament appearance. However, this group has struggled to maintain consistency. Regardless, an AJ Dybantsa-led squad is capable of emerging victorious on any given night. The freshman has lived up to the hype, putting up impressive numbers in Provo. Through 25 games, he’s notched a Big 12-leading 24.4 points along with 6.6 rebounds and 3.8 assists. To boot, the forward is shooting an efficient 54% from the field.
It’s not as if Dybantsa is the only scorer for Brigham Young. Robert Wright is a name to watch, as well. The guard is averaging 18.7 points and a team-leading 4.9 assists per game. Unfortunately, Richie Saunders’ season is over due to an ACL injury. That leaves the Cougars without their most dangerous shooter. Dybantsa, Wright, and Saunders are the only players on BYU putting up more than 7.2 points per game.
Replacing Saunders’ production on offense is one thing. Finding a way to get stops remains the biggest hurdle for the Cougars. This group ranks 50th in college basketball with a 101.6 adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. That’s not a bad mark, but it’s not quite at the level needed to be viewed as serious title threats. To make matters worse, the effort has been lacking on that end of the floor recently. BYU has allowed at least 86 points in five of its last six contests.
Defensive lapses against most ranked opponents can be costly. That’s especially true against Arizona, one of college basketball’s true juggernauts. Last weekend aside, the Wildcats have been about as consistent as they come. In almost any other season, their 23-2 record would warrant a top spot in the AP Poll. To boot, U of A has gone 13-1 when playing at the McKale Center.
In a sport dominated by superstars, the Wildcats wield several high-caliber scorers. Guard Brayden Burries leads the team with 15.7 points per game. In the backcourt, senior Jaden Bradley gives this group experience and playmaking (13.4 PPG, 4.4 AST). Down low, the big man duo of Motiejus Krivas and Tobe Awaka have combined for 21.1 points and 18.4 rebounds per game. Unfortunately, freshman phenom Koa Peat has been ruled out tonight due to a leg injury.
Unlike the Cougars, Arizona excels at stifling its opposition. The school sits at third on KenPom with an 89.8 adjusted defensive efficiency. The Wildcats comfortably lead the Big 12 with 43.8 boards per game. In fact, they rank fourth in the nation with a 58.4% total rebounding rate. That combination of size and elite backcourt scoring is almost impossible to stop on some nights. BYU will need to deliver its best defensive performance of the season to keep this one close.
BYU vs. Arizona pick, best bet
Saunders’ loss is massive, as BYU lacks proven scorers outside of Dybantsa and Wright. Still, I expect the Cougars and their superstar freshman to hang around on Wednesday. It helps that Peat, a strong defender, won’t be able to match up with AJ on the wings. There’s always the possibility of a late surge with this Wildcats crew, so there’s risk in the spread. Keeping that in mind, I’m expecting these two conference rivals to go over tonight’s point total.
