On Wednesday night, the Utah State Aggies look to tack another game onto their winning streak. With seven consecutive victories, they’ve played dominant basketball over this stretch and remain the top contender to come out of the Mountain West. Tonight’s challenger? The Boise State Broncos, a middle-of-the-pack side that will need something of a miracle to pull this upset off.
Here’s a prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Boise State vs. Utah State on Wednesday, February 18.
Boise State vs. Utah State prediction, preview
Boise State Broncos
The Broncos aren’t a basketball power by any means, making the NCAA Tournament just three times in 15 years under Leon Rice and dropping a First Four matchup in 2023-24, which was the last time the team came close. At 15-10 overall, it’s been a respectable season to this point but a 7-7 conference record mars most good feelings here. While 2-6 against Quad 1 teams, Boise State has gone 4-2 against Quad 2 challengers with just one loss in nine games below.
The Broncos are 59th in the KenPom rankings with a NETRTG of +13.18, also ranking 156th in adjusted tempo. They average 78.4 PPG, shooting 44.7% from the field and 35.0% from three. Those are respectable marks, but one difference-making stat is that Boise State has top-15 numbers in both FTA/FGA ratio and FT%. What does that mean? The team gets to the charity stripe at an elite level. In assists, the Broncos average just 13.2 with a 1.15 AST/TO ratio that falls 194th in the nation. As a whole, the offense falls 62nd in ORTG as well. On the glass, they post 34.9 per contest but do fall 11th in DREB%. Speaking of the defensive side of things, Boise State allows 74.3 PPG to opponents and sits 77th in DRTG.
Utah State Aggies
The Aggies, meanwhile, look like a potential sleeper team for when March rolls around. They’re 22-3 overall and a strong 12-2 in conference play, also riding a seven-game winning streak into tonight’s matchup. Against Quad 1 teams, they’re 3-2. Against Quad 2s like Boise State, the Aggies are an unbeaten 5-0 with just one loss when facing teams below that mark. There’s a lot to like about this group.
The KenPom rankings place Utah State 25th with a +22.67 NETRTG, and the team falls in the top 40 in both ORTG and DRTG while dropping to 134th in adjusted tempo. The Aggies’ offense is elite, scoring 83.6 PPG, 32nd in the nation. They’re one of the best squads in the country in regard to shooting efficiency, hitting 50.8% of their shots overall (eighth-best) and 35.6% of three-point attempts (84th). Utah State also moves the ball quite well with 17.6 assists (22nd in the nation) and a 1.59 AST/TO ratio (26th). While perfectly average on the glass with 35.4 rebounds per game, the Aggies do post 8.9 steals a night — also good for 18th, and they’re 22nd in opponent turnovers. As far as opponent scoring goes, they give up 69.8 PPG as well.
Boise State vs. Utah State pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists Utah State as a -9.5 favorite at home tonight with -550 odds to win outright. Boise State holds +410 odds of a Moneyline victory with the game total at 152.5.
The Broncos’ offense has looked quite hot lately, scoring 83, 91, 91, 69, 89 and 96 points over the last six matchups dating back to January 24. They’re 4-2 over that span, also dropping their most recent game in overtime to UNLV, but the results have looked quite solid. However, their offense was shut down for the most part in the previous game against Utah State back on January 10, scoring just 68 points in a 93-68 loss.
The Aggies are simply the better team on both ends and have shown it, big-time at that. Their average scoring margin sits at +13.9 and have all the momentum in the world on their side. With elite shooting efficiency, they’ll have an advantage even if this game becomes a shootout of sorts, but their own defense is better than Boise State’s as well. Perhaps the Broncos will get to the line a ton to make up for that, but it’s far easier to bank on the better overall unit and target Utah State to cover this evening.
