The PGA TOUR is wrapping up the West Coast swing this week with The Genesis Invitational, hosted by Tiger Woods. The event is back at The Riviera Country Club after last season’s relocation to Torrey Pines due to wildfires. The limited 72-player field will play all four rounds on The Riv, with a cut to the top 50 and ties (and any player within 10 strokes of the lead) after Round 2. Last year, Ludvig Aberg won the event on a different course, while Hideki Matsuyama won the last time it was played at Riviera. All the big names are in the field again this week at an iconic course with an elevated purse. It should be a great way to conclude the portion of the schedule in California, so let’s see what kind of Hollywood ending we have in store this week.
Below, I have featured my three favorite bets for The Genesis Invitational on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Big Guns (Scheffler/McIlroy/Schauffele/Fleetwood/Matsuyama/Morikawa/Young/Cantlay) (+100) vs. the Field
I took this same prop favoring the “Big Guns” against the field last week, and Collin Morikawa came out of the field for the win. I still like getting this as an even-money play this week, since I think both Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy have good chances to win this week, while I made Matsuyama my “One-and-Done” play for the week and Cantlay one of my top pivot plays.
Morikawa is included on the “Big Guns” side of the fence this week after his victory, while “the Field” is led by Chris Gotterup, Russell Henley, Si Woo Kim, Sam Burns and Matt Fitzpatrick.
With a limited field of only 72 players, the eight “Big Guns” have a good chance to get a win this week, especially given the disparity between their world rankings and recent wins compared to the rest of the field. In the history of this event at Riviera, there have been a wide variety of winners, but Hideki Matsuyama, Jon Rahm, Bubba Watson and Dustin Johnson show that big drivers do have an advantage. We might have a big driver come from nowhere, but this feels like a spot for Rory or Scottie to get in the win column before the schedule shifts to Florida.
Winning Score Under 267.5 (+112)
Each of the last three events held at Riviera have resulted in a winning score under 267. The Par-71 typically plays fairly close to even par for the field, but someone has been able to find low scores in each of the last few tournaments.
Hideki Matsuyama won with a 267 in 2024, matching Jon Rahm’s winning score from 2023. Neither of those wins were pushes all the way to the finish, either, since both won by multiple strokes. The year before Rahm, his fellow-LIV Golf player Joaquin Niemann got all the way to 265 (-19) for the win, which was the lowest score for a four-round tournament at Riviera since Lanny Wadkins 264 (-20) set the tournament record in 1985.
Since I think we may get a battle from some of the top names in the game this week, I could definitely see the score going to at least -17, which is where this prop sits. It will largely depend on the weather, although since this course isn’t right on the ocean, the wind isn’t typically quite as much of a factor.
Heavy rains have rolled through the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles early in the week, with more rain on tap for Thursday. The rest of the week is dry, though, with favorable conditions. If the rain softens up the course, it could actually make it much more low-scoring, so I think the winner’s score will go under this prop line, and I love getting it at plus-money.
Jake Knapp (-132) over Ludvig Aberg
While Aberg is the defending champion, that event was held on a different course and he was in much better form. He definitely still has the potential to go low in any event, but the 26-year-old from Sweden has had a slow start to the season with a WD from The American Express, a missed cut at the Farmers Insurance Open and a T-37 last week at Pebble Beach. While he did show some positive signs over the weekend, his form has been far from elite like it was before his win last year.
Knapp, on the other hand, has been playing extremely well. He opened the year with a T-11 at the Sony Open in Hawaii and has followed that with three straight top-10 finishes on the West Coast Swing. His best finish was a T-5 at the Farmers Insurance Open, where Aberg missed the cut. He followed that up with four sub-70 rounds in Phoenix for a solo-eighth place finish, and he added another top-10 last week with a T-8 at Pebble Beach.
Knapp led the field in driving distance last week and ranked fourth in Strokes Gained: Putting. Since he is playing so well on Poa annua greens and should have a style of game that plays well at this course, I’m backing him to beat out Aberg in this matchup, even though he’ll be competing at Riviera for the first time in his career.
