The 2026 Winter Olympics continue in Milan, Italy on Tuesday. The Group Stage of men’s hockey competition came to a close over the weekend, but the real action begins on Tuesday as the puck drops to begin the elimination rounds of the tournament’s playoff. During one of the first two games of the day, Switzerland and host nation Italy face off at 6:10 a.m. for stateside viewers
Below, we’ll hit a brief preview, prediction and betting pick for Tuesday’s Olympic hockey matchup between Switzerland and Italy.
Switzerland vs. Italy prediction, preview
Let’s get one thing out of the way… this likely won’t be a particularly close affair.
Team Switzerland didn’t enter as a top-four favorite to win gold in this tournament, but they’ve looked quite solid overall. The Swiss ended the Group Stage with one regulation win, an overtime win and a regulation loss, good for five points in Group A. Their opening game resulted in a dominant 4-0 win over France, an expected outcome given the poor state of the French contingent. Of course, Switzerland was brought back to Earth and humbled 5-1 by the Canadians in game two, but this roster emerged with a 4-3 overtime victory against Czechia to close out the group stage.
So far, Timo Meier (NJD) sits tied for the third-most points of any tournament skater with five, coming from three goals and a pair of assists. Defenseman J.J. Moser (TBL) has four points as well thanks to a trio of assists, and Pius Suter (STL) has a pair of goals himself. There’s no shortage of NHL talent and the team has largely played well while leaning on its offense. The Swiss have put the fifth-most shots on goal (97) and should probably have scored more than the nine goals they’ve managed thus far. If they’re clicking well, this game could enter full-on blowout territory.
Looking toward the Italians, the outlook appears dire. While the home side has seemed like a lovely host nation during these Winter Olympics, its hockey team probably doesn’t belong at this level of competition. Team Italy went winless in group play, dropping all three of its game in regulation losses. The final scores of those matches? A 5-2 defeat to Sweden, a 3-2 loss to Slovakia, and an 11-0 finish at the hands of Finland. It’s a brutal scene heading into the playoff portion of the Games, where they’ll likely meet the end of the road.
For Italy, Matthew Bradley is the leading goalscorer with two so far, and he’s clearly one of the team’s top talents after flirting with a PPG pace in the Italian ICEHL. Fellow first-liner Dustin Gazley has one goal in this competition along with a team-leading three points, while third-line winger Luca Frigo has a goal as well. The roster does remain without a single current NHLer though, meaning the group is far outmatched.
Switzerland vs. Italy pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Switzerland is a -3.5 favorite on the puck line with -1800 odds of a straight win. Italy has +1000 odds on the Moneyline and the game total sits at 6.5 combined goals.
The host nation will almost certainly be going home after this one, but thankfully its players won’t have to go far. The Swiss simply have far more talent and look like they belong in this competition. You cannot say the same for the Italians, especially as they’ve allowed 160 shots on goal during this contest, the most of any team by a 33-shot margin. Sweden put 60 pucks on the net in the opening game to set a then-record, but Finland surpassed that with 62 SOG in that 11-0 blowout.
Italy may be known for its many cheeses, but that blue line and netminder are about to be carved up — Team Switzerland should turn them into Swiss cheese with an overload of attempts. The -3.5 line is a lot to overcome, but there’s a good chance Switzerland can get this done and cover. If that game line scares you off, though, something like 6+ shots for Timo Meier (-155) or Nico Hischier (-105) makes plenty of sense as a best bet. The pair have logged 14 and 10 shots so far through three games and now have the easiest defensive matchup yet, so they should use their NHL talent to produce here.
