The NBA doesn’t return from the All-Star break until Thursday, but there’s plenty of hoops to watch in the meantime with a loaded college basketball slate on Tuesday. We get a rivalry matchup between the No. 16 North Carolina Tar Heels and the NC State Wolfpack at 7 p.m. EST. These in-state rivals are near each other in the ACC standings, so there’s much to play for beyond just bragging rights for both sides.
Here’s a prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for UNC vs. NC State on Tuesday, February 17.
UNC vs. NC State prediction, preview
North Carolina Tar Heels
The Tar Heels were dealt a major blow last week when leading scorer Caleb Wilson suffered fractured hand. With a return date in question and the ACC and NCAA Tournaments fast approaching, handling business in the meantime becomes even more important. UNC did just that in its first game without him, beating Pitt to advance to 20-5 overall and 8-4 record in the ACC. North Carolina is still 4-5 against Quad 1 teams and 2-0 against Quad 2 opponents, but sits one win back of tonight’s foe in the conference standings.
Per the latest KenPom rankings, the Tar Heels fall 28th in the nation with a +21.78 NETRTG. The offensive production typically comes easily with 81.8 PPG, shooting a solid 47.6% from the field which makes up for a more paltry 34.5% mark from three. This team also moves the ball at an elite level with 16.8 assists per game and the eighth-best AST/TO ratio at 1.82 — limiting those turnovers is a key part of what makes them so effective. Overall, the ORTG sits 24th in the country, a strong indication that they’re capable of elite production. UNC also pulls down an average of 38.8 rebounds per game, 32nd in the nation, allowing 70.4 PPG on the defensive side of things, good for 73rd overall. The latter mark may not sound impressive, but the Tar Heels’ DRTG comes in at 44th in the sport as well.
NC State Wolfpack
UNC may be one of the state’s premier programs, but NC State is quietly making a case to approach the top. The Wolfpack doesn’t have the historic pedigree, but they have looked quite good this season in the first campaign under former McNeese coach Will Wade. They’re 18-8 on the year and have dropped two straight games, but remain 9-4 in conference play and 10-4 at home, too. NC State is just 3-6 against Quad 1 sides but holds a 9-1 mark against Quad 2 teams.
NC State’s ranking via KenPom metrics comes in at 31st overall with a +21.61 NETRTG. The Wolfpack are excellent at both ends of the floor in terms of ORTG (21st) and DRTG (47th), and the PPG average of 85.0 certainly backs that up as the 20th-most in the nation. They dish 16.3 assists with a 1.70 AST/TO ratio, the latter of which is good for 16th overall. They’re also one of the most efficient teams in terms of shooting percentages, hitting 47.8% of attempts from the field and 39.4% of threes — the latter mark is the sixth-best rate in the country and they make the 15th-most shots from beyond the arc, too. However, NCST is somewhat pedestrian in rebounds with 35.1 per game and allows 74.4 PPG as well.
North Carolina vs. NC State pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists NC State as a 6.5-point favorite tonight with -310 odds to win on the Moneyline. North Carolina’s odds of an outright win come in at +250 with the game total set at 157.5.
The interesting part here is that 62% of straight wagers favor UNC to win tonight despite the fact the program won’t have its best scorer. That percentage likely has something to do with the plus value and brand recognition, but the Moneyline for the Tar Heels certainly is not a bad pick.
Personally, I’d rather target them to cover, though. It’d be one thing if North Carolina was fully healthy, but missing its top scorer does hurt quite a bit. On Saturday against Pitt, the group did score 79 points despite missing both Wilson and Henri Veesar, its second-leading scorer. Between the pair, the Tar Heels didn’t have a combined 36.2 PPG and 18.4 rebounds, so it’s almost shocking they took care of business even against a lower-tier opponent.
Veesar is still day-to-day, but the big man will be needed against NC State if he’s available to play. Taking on Pittsburgh without their two stars is one thing, but taking on this Wolfpack roster is another one. Wade has coached this team well and there are five double-digit scorers in the lineup for them. That’s also not to mention that North Carolina sits 193rd in the nation with 7.8 made threes allowed per game and and 182nd in opponent three-point percentage allowed.
Assuming Veesar can play tonight, I do like UNC to cover that 6.5-point spread and even have a shot at winning outright. The Tar Heels are 14-11 ATS this season and 2-1 ATS as an away underdog as well. They performed quite well in their last game with an undermanned rotation, so perhaps they can hang in there and sneak in a cover even if Veesar doesn’t suit up as well. It’ll be a taller task without him, but there’s a decent cushion with this spread either way and it seems UNC may be able to muster up scoring from several others in the rotation as well. It’s not often you can get this team as this much of an underdog.
