When Paris Saint-Germain conceded a 47th-minute equalizer against Newcastle United to drop out of the top eight in the Champions League League Phase, it looked like the reigning champions’ chances of going back to back had taken a hit. But Les Parisiens are surely comfortable: they had to play in the Knockout Playoffs last season, trounced Brest 10-0, and went on to win their first-ever Champions League title.
PSG will again face Ligue 1 opposition in the Knockout Playoffs when it travels to face Monaco at 3 p.m. ET (9 p.m. local).
Les Parisiens are -215 favorites to win (-1400 to advance to the Round of 16) at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Les Mónegasques are +550 (+700 to advance). There are +390 odds that the teams will draw.
Monaco vs. PSG prediction, pick
Both teams earned most of their points early and have slowed down as of late. PSG got its campaign off to a romping start, winning each of its first three games — including a 7-2 rout against Bayer Leverkusen — but since then, it has two draws, two losses, and just one win. Monaco lost its opening match, went on a five-match unbeaten run that included wins over Bodø/Glimt and Galatasaray, but it got throttled by Real Madrid and drew with Juventus on the final match day to just squeeze into the Knockout Playoffs by a single point. Les Parisiens are second in Ligue 1 — a major upset given that they’ve won it in 11 of the last 13 seasons — and Les Mónegasques are eighth.
PSG’s squad needs no introduction. Despite missing lots of time due to injuries, reigning Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembélé leads the team with 11 goals in all competitions, but he’s buoyed by plenty of talent around him: Gonçalo Ramos has 10, Bradley Barcola and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia have seven each, Vitinha has six — including a team-leading five in the Champions League — and Achraf Hakimi has three assists in five Champions League starts. Unsurprisingly, Les Parisiens have had one of the strongest attacks during the League Phase, ranking fourth in shots on target and fifth in expected goals. They played extremely clean football, leading all teams in time of possession and ranking second in pass completion percentage. However, PSG can be beaten defensively, as it allowed the fifth-most expected goals per shot and Lucas Chevalier only saved 50% of his opportunities. Les Parisiens also allowed among the most headed goals. They did win both ground and aerial duels at high rates, but they ranked near the bottom in clearances, blocks, and interceptions because they were so dominant at controlling possession.
The issue for Monaco is that its attack is relatively unimpressive. No player has even reached 10 goals in all competitions, with Folarin Balogun and Ansu Fati tying for the team lead with eight each, and in the Champions League, only Balogun scored three goals. To be fair, Les Mónegasques actually created high-quality looks, ranking 11th in expected goals and 12th in shots, but they were terrible at converting their chances, ranking dead last in goals minus expected goals. While they also liked to spread the ball around, they ranked 11th-to-last in pass completion percentage. Monaco won more than half of both its ground and aerial duels, but when opponents earned opportunities, they tended to be good ones — Les Mónegasques allowed shots in the box at the fifth-highest rate and got lucky that opponents hit the post six times. They could have a tougher time defensively with five defenders out, including first-choice goalkeeper Lukáš Hrádecký.
PSG scoring multiple goals is fairly likely — it’s done so in 20 of its 34 matches this season, and now it is as healthy as it has been all season. Though Les Parisiens recently lost to Rennes to drop out of first in Ligue 1, they sat first-choice goalkeeper Chevalier and captain Marquinhos, so it’s likely that they’ll have a stronger squad against Monaco. With Les Mónegasques’ passing sloppiness and vulnerability to fast-breaks, it’s hard to imagine them breaking PSG’s high press, and though Les Parisiens’ back line isn’t perfect, it should be good enough to keep a clean sheet against the Champions League’s least efficient attack.
