The 2026 Winter Olympics continue in Milan, Italy on Tuesday. The Group Stage of men’s hockey competition came to a close over the weekend, but the real action begins on Tuesday as the puck drops to begin the elimination rounds of the tournament. In the Qualification Playoffs, the final game of the day begins at 3: 10 p.m. EST stateside. In this one, a high-powered Sweden roster looks to down Latvia, an underdog challenger.
For those looking to get in on the betting action, look no further. Below, we’ll hit a preview, prediction and best bet for Tuesday’s Olympic hockey matchup between Latvia and Sweden.
Latvia vs. Sweden prediction, preview
The Latvian side won just one game in regulation during the Group Stage, a shocking 4-3 victory over Germany this past weekend. It was a pair of goals in the first 30 minutes from Dans Locmelis that opened the scoring for the team in that one, and they weathered a comeback attempt from the Germans well despite being outshot. The other two outings for Latvia weren’t nearly as successful, suffering a 5-1 blowout to the USA and 4-2 loss to Denmark even despite putting 14 more shots on goal than the latter.
The offense hasn’t been stellar, though. Latvia has just 75 SOG in three games, third-fewest among the field. Their own blue line is in the middle of the pack in terms of SOG allowed, but a team SV% of .864 leaves much to be desired as the third-lowest, and 12 goals against are tied for second-most. In terms of individual contributions, Zemgus Girgensons (TBL) leads the roster with four points, al lvia assists. Renars Krastenbergs and Eduards Tramarks of the Extraliga and AHL are second in team points with three apiece, and Locmelis is the other scorer with multiple goals.
Now, let’s talk about Sweden. The team entered these Winter Games with the third-best odds to win the gold medal. Now, the side hasn’t even secured a first-round bye despite winning two games in regulation and dropping one more. The Swedes opened the tournament with a 5-2 victory over the host nation of Italy, setting an Olympic record with 60 SOG in that game (which was broken by Finland just a few days later). Falling to Finland 4-1 is a forgivable offense, especially given that Kevin Fiala (LAK) suffered a significant injury in that one and is expected to miss much, if not all of the remaining NHL season. Sweden did bounce back in the final group game with a 5-3 win against Slovakia, so momentum may have been seized even if the final score of that one should’ve reflected a wider gap.
Sweden’s 146 SOG rank first in this competition while the 78 allowed fall fifth among all teams. Team Sweden is also fourth in goals with 11 while allowing nine themselves. Raymond Lucas’s (DET) five points are a team-best, also leading the side with four assists. However, Rasmus Dahlin (BUF) is close behind with four points. Mika Zibanejad (NYR), Adrian Kempe (LAK) and Erik Karlsson (PIT) have three each, and four skaters have two points. There’s plenty of star power across these lines, just about everywhere one looks.
Denmark vs. Czechia pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Sweden is a -3.5 favorite on the puck line with -800 odds of a straight-up win. Latvia holds +550 odds on the Moneyline with the game total set at 6.5 combined goals.
This won’t be close. Not at all.
The Latvians have allowed a minimum of three goals in each game, and while the blue line is doing a fine job of limiting shots, they’re now facing a pretty star-studded lineup. More importantly, they don’t have the netminders to score early and park the bus, to borrow some terminology from the soccer world. Arturs Silovs (PIT) has an .873 SV% and 3.01 GAA, while Elvis Merzlikins has marks of .875 and 6.00 in just 40 minutes. Silovs has to tighten up for his team to have a chance, but even in NHL play he hasn’t looked fantastic with an .896 SV% as well.
Against a strong Sweden roster, either one of them will almost certainly crack. The Swedes have a litany of NHL players who can potentially take over this game, and there’s simply no way that Latvia limits enough of them. The overload method has worked well for Sweden for the most part despite shooting just 7.53%. If a few more of those hit the back of the net, or if these guys keep pressuring the opposing goalie at a similar rate as in group play, this could be a bloodbath. Covering a -3.5 puck line may be somewhat difficult, but the Swedes are capable. Alternatively, though, I like a pair of assists for Dahlin as well as 4+ SOG for him and Kempe both.
