In the wide-open SEC, each game means an opportunity to boost, or damage, your NCAA Tournament resume. That’s the case for Georgia (17-8, 5-7) and Kentucky (17-8, 8-4) on Tuesday at Rupp Arena. The Bulldogs come into this one in need of a win, having lost five of their last six matchups. On the flip side, it’s been a solid stretch as of late for the Wildcats. Big Blue has won eight of their last ten contests; can they keep the good times rolling tonight?
Kentucky enters Tuesday as 7.5-point favorites (-115) over Georgia. The total is set at 161.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for this evening’s game between the Bulldogs and Wildcats.
Georgia vs. Kentucky prediction, preview
At their best, the Bulldogs play at an exciting, frenetic pace on offense. The team ranks ninth in KenPom with a 72.4 adjusted tempo, second only to Alabama among all high-major programs. Unsurprisingly, Georgia is averaging 90.3 points per game, seventh-most in college basketball. Leading the way is guard Jeremiah Wilkinson (17.1 PPG). The sophomore, held out for two straight contests, is no longer listed on the injury report. It’s no coincidence that UGA lost each of those matchups by at least 16 points.
A deep, dangerous Georgia offense has the potential to go off on any given night. However, it’s not that end of the floor that’s given cause for concern. The Bulldogs are allowing 78.4 points per game, most among all SEC squads. To be fair, that number is due in part to a rapid-fire offensive tempo. On KenPom, UGA has posted a respectable 103.1 adjusted defensive efficiency, good enough for 63rd in the nation. In addition, the school is swatting 6.6 shots per game, most in the conference. Still, this is a vulnerable group on the glass. Georgia has notched a middling 50.7% total rebounding rate, 143rd in college basketball.
An inability to box out could hurt the Bulldogs tonight. Kentucky has a 52.6% total rebounding rate, sixth-best in the SEC. Solid play on the glass has been one of several components behind UK’s midseason turnaround. KenPom is high on this group, placing them at 27th in net rating (+21.91). To boot, the Wildcats rank 32nd in adjusted offensive efficiency (121.1) and 33rd in adjusted defensive efficiency (99.2). A well-rounded roster means there aren’t many weaknesses for opponents to dissect.
Big Blue has, if nothing else, performed admirably against quality foes. Kentucky has gone 8-8 vs. Quad 1 and 2 opponents this season. In addition, UK has defended home court, going 13-2 at home. If there’s a knock on the Wildcats, their offense depends heavily on one name. Otega Oweh is one of the SEC’s premier talents, averaging 17.0 points, 4.4 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game. However, just one other player on the roster, Denzel Aberdeen, is averaging double-digit points. Kentucky has gone 8-3 when Oweh scores at least 20 points.
Georgia vs. Kentucky pick, best bet
In fairness to the Bulldogs, they’ve lost two straight without Wilkinson. Getting their leading scorer back should lead to a more competitive showing on Tuesday. Still, it’s difficult to have much faith in a Georgia group that has gone 3-6 against Quad 1 opponents. That’s without mentioning any potential limitations for Wilkinson. Kentucky comes into this one with more momentum, home court advantage, and the best player in Oweh. Those three factors are enough for me to side with the Wildcats tonight.
