12 teams have been eliminated from the Champions League after the League Phase, and 16 more will take the pitch this week and next in the Knockout Playoffs, with half of them going home. All margin for error is gone; only a two-legged tie determines every team’s Champions League fate.
The first two-legged tie will kick off at 12:45 p.m. ET (8:45 PM local) at RAMS Park in Istanbul. Galatasaray, which finished 20th in the League Phase to advance to its first Champions League knockout stage since 2013-14, will host Juventus, which drew with Monaco on the final day of League Phase play with the chance to secure a top-eight spot. The teams’ return fixture will take place in Turin next Wednesday.
La Vecchia Signora are +110 favorites to win (-310 to advance to the Round of 16) at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Cimbom is +240. There are +260 odds that the teams will draw.
Galatasaray vs. Juventus prediction, pick
The two teams could hardly have had more different runs through the League Phase. Galatasaray was one of the most inconsistent clubs on a game-by-game basis, losing 5-1 to Eintracht Frankfurt on the opening day before rattling off three straight wins against Liverpool, Bodø/Glimt and Ajax, but it isn’t in great form after picking up just one point from its final four matches. On the other hand, Juventus got off to a slow start, drawing three of its first four and losing the other, but it beat Bodø, Paphos, and Benfica before drawing with Monaco. Arguably the strongest single result that either team had was Cimbom’s home win over the Reds, but given Liverpool’s inconsistency, it’s hard to read too much into that.
The most dangerous player on the pitch will wear Galatasaray’s cherry red. Victor Osimhen is tied with Real Madrid’s Kylian Mbappé and Atalanta’s Charles De Ketelaere with a competition-leading three Player of the Match awards, and his six goals trail only Mbappé’s 13, Harry Kane’s eight, and Erling Haaland’s seven. But he hasn’t received much help from elsewhere on the roster: Yunus Akgün is the only other player to find the back of the net, and Cimbom has produced just 12.21 expected goals, the fifth-fewest among the teams to advance. It also ranked third-to-last among advancing teams in goals minus expected goals, and if it hadn’t drawn three penalties, it very well might not have advanced. It’s not like Galatasaray was particularly strong in the back, either; it ranked fifth-to-last among advancing teams in expected goals. It did win aerials at an elite rate, and Uğurcan Çakir was pretty solid between the sticks, but the high-quality chances that it allowed are cause for concern.
Perhaps ironically, La Vecchia Signora is led by a Turk, Kenan Yıldız, who’s tied for the team lead with four goal contributions in the Champions League and who’s smashed home eight goals in Serie A. But Yıldız is one of just a handful of young, talented forwards at Juventus: Weston McKennie and Dušan Vlahović have three Champions League goals each and Jonathan David has two. Together, they’ve helped power an attack that produced 1.04 more expected goals in the League Phase and convert five more. La Vecchia Signora was also somewhat stronger at the back, giving up the eighth-fewest goals and recording the most blocks, and Michele di Gregorio saved more than 70% of the shots on target he faced. But it’s not like Juventus was perfect: it won ground duels at the lowest rate and notched the second-fewest interceptions. It also gave up the fourth-most penalties and was pretty terrible at playing the offsides trap.
On paper, the Italian side seems like it should be a solid favorite, and in a relatively conservative, pass-heavy game, Juventus’ slight advantage in the high press could be the difference-maker. However, its inability to set up the offsides trap, its indiscipline in allowing penalties, and its struggles in ground duels is a cause for concern. Plus, both teams like to cross it, and Cimbom’s elite aerial duel win rate means it should be able to stop La Vecchia Signora from scoring via header. With Osimhen up top, all Galatasaray needs is one real opportunity to pounce, and Juventus has too many questions to deny Osimhen that chance. Add that to a raucous RAMS Park, and Cimbom has a real path to a draw.
