Two seasons ago, Atalanta thwarted Bayer Leverkusen’s hopes of an invincible treble when it topped the German outfit in the Europa League final. But last season, La Dea disappointed, losing to Club Brugge in the Champions League Knockout Playoffs after only missing out on automatic qualification by one point.
Atalanta has a much tougher test in these Knockout Playoffs, when it faces Borussia Dortmund, a Champions League finalist in 2024. The teams’ two-legged tie will begin at 3 p.m. ET (9 p.m. local) at the Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund, with the return leg scheduled for next Wednesday at 12:45 p.m. ET (6:45 p.m. local) in Bergamo.
BVB is a +115 favorite to win (-105 to advance to the Round of 16) at DraftKings Sportsbook, and La Dea is +215 (-120 to advance). There are +255 odds that the teams will draw.
Dortmund vs. Atalanta prediction, pick
Borussia Dortmund was no stranger to drama in the first few match days of the competition, scoring four goals in each of its first three matchups and picking up seven points, but since then, it has slowed down, suffering losses to Manchester City, Tottenham Hotspur, and Inter Milan and only managing to draw against Bodø/Glimt in the Arctic. Atalanta, meanwhile, got off to a slow start with a 4-0 loss against PSG, managed four wins from five matches to all but secure its spot in the top eight, then lost to a pair of eliminated clubs in Athletic Club Bilbao and Union Saint-Gilloise to fall back into the Knockout Playoff. It’s also worth noting that BVB has has been much better domestically than La Dea, as it is challenging Bayern Münich for the title while Atalanta is just sixth in Serie A.
Dortmund’s attack is led by Serhou Guirassy, who has finished second in the Bundesliga Golden Boot race to Harry Kane in each of the last two full seasons and ranks fourth so far in 2025-26. The Guinean also tied Raphinha for the most goals in the competition last season, and he had three in this season’s League Phase. He was joined by Felix Nmecha and Julian Brandt, who both had three of their own, and together they powered a front three that finished the League Phase 14th in expected goals, third in goals minus expected goals, and ninth in expected goals per shot. Still, BVB is playing in the Knockout Playoffs because of its poor defense: it gave up 17 goals, the second-most of any team to advance. It did a decent job limiting quality looks, allowing the 14th-fewest expected goals per shot, and it racked up tackles and interceptions at among the highest rates, but it ranked second-to-last in goals minus expected goals because Gregor Kobel made just 59.5% of his save opportunities. The Swiss shot-stopper has been much better in the Bundesliga, leading the league in save percentage, so he could be due to bounce back, but Dortmund’s relatively poor win rate on ground and aerial duels could hold it back.
La Dea has also had a well-balanced attack, though a less potent one. Charles De Ketelaere, who’s tied with Kylian Mbappé and Victor Osimhen for the most Player of the Match awards, has two goals and two assists, and Gianluca Scamacca and Lazar Samardzic also have two goals apiece. Ademola Lookman, who was the hero in Atalanta’s Europa League triumph and has now moved to Atlético Madrid, is a big loss, but he’d had relatively quiet performances in both the Champions League and Serie A anyway. Still, with or without Lookman, La Dea’s finishing has been poor, as it ranked third-to-last in goals minus expected goals in the League Phase. It was better defensively, allowing a fairly low percentage of shots in the box and being solid between the sticks through Marco Carnesecchi, and it didn’t allow a single goal via penalty kick, free kick, header, or fast-break. However, Atlanta had one major flaw: it won ground duels at sixth-lowest rate and recorded the second-fewest tackles.
Given La Dea’s poor tackling, Dortmund’s deliberate style of play could allow it to control the pace, and a game with relatively few chances would allow BVB’s brilliant attackers to take advantage while Atalanta’s mediocre finishers flounder in front of the net. Plus, Dortmund’s strong recent domestic form (winning six straight games) is more impressive than anything La Dea has done in Serie A this season, even though it, too, has won six of its last eight games. Carnesecchi will make this a challenge, but with Guirassy leading the line, I think BVB will put one home in the end.
