Matchday 8 of the UEFA Champions League couldn’t have been more drama-filled if it was scripted, and no game on the slate offered more theatrics than that between Benfica and Real Madrid. With time winding down towards the final kick of the game and Los Blancos down to nine men, it appeared that Marseille would advance in 24th on nine points. But As Águias earned a free kick, Fredrik Aursnes swung it into the box, and goalkeeper Anatolii Trubin skied the highest to head it home for his first professional goal. The 98th-minute winner put Benfica in the final playoff place.
Now, because football has an aura of poetry, the teams will face off once again, this time in a two-legged tie in the Knockout Playoff round. They’ll first meet at 3 p.m. ET (8 p.m. local) in Lisbon, with a return leg scheduled for next Wednesday in Madrid.
Real Madrid is a -110 favorite to win (-550 to advance to the Round of 16) at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Benfica is +270. There are +300 odds that the teams will draw.
Benfica vs. Real Madrid prediction, pick
Before their late heroics, As Águilas looked nearly guaranteed not to advance. They struggled mightily early on in the Champions League, gifting Azerbaijani side Qarabağ its first-ever away win in the competition and losing each of their first four matches, but they managed to fight back with wins over Ajax and Napoli to give themselves a chance going into the final day. Los Blancos, meanwhile, looked likely to finish in the top eight after winning their first three matches, but narrow losses to Liverpool and Manchester City left the door open for Benfica to pounce.
Pounce As Águilas did. While they lack the top-level talent of Real Madrid, they have a very well-rounded attack, with Vangelis Pavlidis, Leandro Barreiro Martins, and Andreas Schjelderup each scoring two goals and four other players (including Trubin) contributing one each. The attack hasn’t been great overall — they rank fourth-to-last in expected goals among teams to advance, ahead of only Sporting, Olympiakos, and Qarabağ — but it arguably got unlucky, as it hit the post eight times, the second-most in the competition. Plus, Benfica has the defense of a Knockout Phase side: it allowed the 12th-fewest expected goals in the League Phase, as well as the eighth-fewest shots, and it also won more than half of its duels both through the air and on the ground. The issue is that the shots it did allow were high-quality, as they came from inside the box at the third-highest rate, and Trubin made fewer saves than expected between the sticks.
Allowing high-quality shots probably won’t work so well against Los Blancos. Kylian Mbappé became the top scorer at a single Champions League group/league phase with his 13 goals, and while he’s done most of the damage, Jude Bellingham and Vinicius Júnior aren’t exactly to be ignored, especially since Vinicius and Turkish wunderkind Arda Güler have so much playmaking talent, recording four assists each. With Mbappé leading the way, it’s no surprise that Real Madrid ranked fourth in expected goals and fifth in shots on target. Los Blancos are capable of scoring in a variety of ways, netting at least thrice each from penalties, headers, and fast-breaks. However, their defense hasn’t been as solid, as they allowed the sixth-most expected goals of any team to advance, and Thibaut Courtois — like Trubin — made fewer saves than expected given the shot quality he faced. They were also pretty gettable on set-pieces, as evidenced by the League Phase’s final touch.
Given Real Madrid’s relative vulnerability to fast-breaks — the two goals that it allowed in such situations were tied for the seventh-most of any team — it would be unsurprising to see Benfica put at least one past Courtois again, especially if it comes on a set-piece. As Águias’ defensive system also forces Los Blancos into playing from the wide parts of the pitch and attempting crosses, an area in which they are comparatively less comfortable. At the end of the day, though, Real Madrid is a 15-time Champions League winner for a reason, and it has won six of its seven matches since Álvaro Arbeloa was appointed manager, scoring multiple goals in each of its last 14. Despite what happened the last time these two teams faced off on this pitch, Los Blancos seem due for a win.
