The NBA trade deadline has passed, and the league has hit a pause for the All-Star break. With the exception of a handful of players who will emerge through the buyout market, rosters are set for the home stretch of the season.
With more than half the season in the books, the contenders and pretenders have begun to separate themselves. There have also been some significant shifts in the futures market on DraftKings Sportsbook.
This article looks at the NBA Championship odds at the All-Star break and how a few of the top teams stand as they prepare for the home stretch of the season, and a final championship pick.
Oklahoma City Thunder (+130)
Last year’s NBA champions have remained the NBA championship favorites from start to finish this season. They opened the year with +260 odds of winning the NBA championship on DraftKings Sportsbook and have cut this number in half after playing out the first half of the season.
Oklahoma City remains at the top of the Western Conference with a 42-14 record on the season. It has faded a bit after getting off to a historic pace to start the year, going 24-1 through the first 25 games. On the season overall, the Thunder rank third in points per game, fourth in offensive rating, first in opponent points per game, first in defensive rating and first in net rating. They have battled some injury issues of late, but the Thunder have proven they are capable of winning a championship, and their young core still plays with an admirable hunger.
Denver Nuggets (+450)
The Denver Nuggets opened the season with +800 odds of winning the championship. They sit in third place in the Western Conference with a 35-20 record thus far. Denver leads the league in scoring and offensive rating and ranks 19th in opponent points allowed, 24th in defensive rating and ninth in net rating.
Nikola Jokic remains the best player on just about every basketball court he walks on and has proven capable of leading this Nuggets team to a championship. But perhaps the biggest argument in the Nuggets’ favor is the talent of the rest of the roster this season. Jokic missed a month due to a knee injury this year, and Denver went 10-6 in his absence. Jamal Murray has taken his game to new heights, Peyton Watson has been a major breakout story, and Cameron Johnson has settled into his role. Denver did not seemingly receive the same level of buzz as some teams with larger odds in the offseason, but oddsmakers are taking note of its production on the court.
Cleveland Cavaliers (+1200)
The Cleveland Cavaliers made a massive splash at the trade deadline by flipping Darius Garland for James Harden, with the hopes that this helps them get over the postseason hump. While Harden has some postseason blemishes of his own, it is fair to assess that there was enough of a sample size to accept that the current core had maxed out its ceiling together. Cleveland holds a 34-21 record on the season, which slots it at fourth place in the Eastern Conference. Even still, this is a bit of a disappointment after it led the Eastern Conference with a 64-18 record last year.
Cleveland opened the season with +850 odds of winning the championship. However, it should be noted that this ranked fourth in the NBA, and its current +1200 odds rank third. The metrics should not carry as much weight considering how much Harden will change their style of play, but the Cavaliers currently rank second in scoring, fifth in offensive rating, 17th in opponent points allowed, 13th in defensive rating and eighth in net rating. There has not been much of a track record of this seismic of a midseason trade producing immediate results, but the Eastern Conference is wide open for the taking.
New York Knicks (+1300)
The team that should be most offended by the talking point of the Eastern Conference being wide open is the New York Knicks. After decades of disappointing basketball, the Knicks have found a group and an identity that works together and sit in third place in the Eastern Conference with a 35-20 record. New York ranks eighth in points per game, third in offensive rating, sixth in opponent points per game, 10th in defensive rating and fourth in net rating. The Knicks have made it to at least the conference semifinals in three straight seasons and fell to the Indiana Pacers in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals. They elected to keep the same core together and have added some valuable rotation players such as Jose Alvarado and Jordan Clarkson.
But there have been some steep ups and downs for New York this season. The franchise dropped nine of its 11 games played at the start of January, and there have been some visible frustrations from and surrounding Karl-Anthony Towns. Mike Brown has introduced a new offense to the same core, but there have been some evident growing pains in rolling this out. If the Knicks play to their peak as a team, they should be viewed as the top threat in the Eastern Conference, but they have failed to do this at a reliable enough rate thus far.
Detroit Pistons (+1500)
Getting +1500 odds to win the championship for the Detroit Pistons should still be viewed as solid value. The Pistons have sat at the top of the Eastern Conference from wire-to-wire this season, and now they hold the best winning percentage in the NBA at .755 following the Thunder’s recent slip. Detroit ranks 10th in points per game, 11th in offensive rating, third in opponent points allowed, second in defensive rating and second in net rating.
Cade Cunningham has emerged as a legitimate all-NBA caliber talent and looks ready to be the top player on a championship winner. Detroit has embraced its identity as a hard-nosed, defensive-minded team not afraid to play physical. It got its playoff experience last year in a six-game battle with the Knicks and has been better across the board all season. Oddsmakers have not shown their full belief just yet, but there comes a certain point where the results have to be properly weighed.
Other Notable Odds Shifts From Preseason to All-Star Break:
- Spurs: +6000 to +1600
- Rockets: +700 to +2200
- Lakers: +1400 to +3500
- Timberwolves: +1300 to +3500
- Warriors: +1800 to +12000
The Pick: Boston Celtics (+1500)
The expectations coming into the season were that this would be a gap year for the Boston Celtics. The franchise proved it is capable of getting over the championship hump by doing so in the 2023-24 season. But the outlook for this season is much different as Jayson Tatum has remained sidelined as he recovers from his Achilles tear. Boston also moved on from key players like Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford this offseason.
But without Tatum on the floor, the Celtics have still cruised to a 35-19 record and sit in second place in the Eastern Conference. They rank 18th in the NBA in scoring, second in offensive rating, second in opponent points per game, eighth in defensive rating and third in net rating. Jaylen Brown has played like a true MVP candidate, posting averages of 29.3 points, 6.9 rebounds and 4.7 assists while leading the NBA in field-goal attempts and made field goals per game. Tatum continues his recovery process and will be a larger boost than any other possible trade candidate or buyout addition if he can play like himself. The Celtics also elected to trade for Nikola Vucevic at the trade deadline, providing a necessary boost to their interior production.
For most of the season, I have approached the championship outlook with the belief that the team that wins the Western Conference will win the NBA championship. There is no doubt that there is more talent in the West, and you could make a case that the top four teams in basketball are all coming out of this side of the league. However, it is going to be a bloodbath to pave a path to the NBA Championship through the West. This is not to say winning the Eastern Conference is an easy task. But if the season were to end today, the Celtics would play the winner of the Miami Heat and Orlando Magic in the first game and then the winner of the Cavaliers vs. Raptors series in the second round to get to the Conference Finals. This is a far easier path than any threat in the West will face.
The biggest risk here is when and at what level Jayson Tatum can return. The Celtics have found their stride without him and thrived, but there are still plenty of ways he could positively impact the game. Tatum is also one of the less disruptive star players in terms of his style of play, so expect the path to incorporating him to be involved. Boston has championship experience, more depth than it is given credit, a coaching advantage in most matchups, and its best player returning to the floor. It is off to a convincing start to the season, and I am backing the Celtics to win their second championship in a three-year span.
