The Omaha Mavericks will host the Denver Pioneers in a Sunday afternoon matinee between Summit League rivals. Tipoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET.
The teams faced off on Jan. 31 in Denver, where the Mavericks edged out an 84-82 victory. They out-rebounded the Pioneers by 10 and outscored them in the paint by 20 points. Both teams held double-digit leads during the matchup, but Omaha knocked down some key free throws in the final seconds to secure the win.
Omaha enters as a 2.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the game total set at 159.5 points.
Denver at Omaha prediction, preview
Denver enters at 13-14 with a 6-6 record in Summit League play. The program is riding a three-game winning streak, its largest of the season, taking down North Dakota State, North Dakota, and South Dakota State. The Pioneers are 15-8-1 against the spread and have fallen under the game total in 19 of 24 qualifying games.
Carson Johnson headlines the production with 19.6 points and 2.9 assists per game, shooting over 40% from beyond the arc. Jeremiah Burke adds 15.4 points and 5.9 rebounds. Zane Nelson contributes 14.3 points and 3.9 boards, and Logan Kinsey is the lone other player averaging double figures at 11.5 points. Julius Rollins, Shaun Wysocki, and Gabe Oldham also play notable roles in the rotation.
Denver is scoring 83.5 points per game, which ranks 44th out of the 365 qualifying D1 teams. The Pioneers rank 74th in offensive rating, 37th in field-goal percentage, and 19th in three-point percentage. On the defensive end is where most of their issues arise. Denver has allowed 82.7 points a night, which ranks 350th in the country. They rank 353rd in defensive rating, 351st in opponent field-goal percentage, and 327th in opponent three-point efficiency.
Omaha also enters at 13014 with a 6-6 record in the Summit League. The Mavericks picked up a victory over St. Thomas-Minnesota earlier this week and have won four of their last six games. They’re 11-12 against the spread and have fallen under the game total in 13 of their 23 qualifying games.
Paul Djobet missed the start of the season due to eligibility issues with his transfer from Miami, but he has since emerged as the team’s leading scorer. The junior guard is averaging 19.8 points and 7.1 rebounds per game, while shooting 43.8% from deep. Meanwhile, Tony Osburn adds 13.1 points, and Lance Waddles chips in 12.7 points with a team-high 4.7 rebounds. Ja’Sean Glover also averages in double figures. Grant Stubblefield, Christian Richardson, Kamryn Thomas, and Valentino Simon also play key roles in the rotation.
Omaha has scored 77.5 points per game, which ranks 147th in the country. The Mavericks also rank 197th in offensive rating, 80th in field-goal percentage, and 77th in three-point accuracy. On the other end, they’ve allowed 77.1 points, ranking 269th in the nation. Omaha sits 293rd in defensive rating, 222nd in opponent field-goal percentage, and 127th in opponent perimeter efficiency.
Denver at Omaha pick, best bet
Omaha got the victory in the first matchup with Denver on Jan. 31, and my lean is that the Mavericks get it done once again at home. However, I’m backing the teams to clear the 159.5-point game total on Sunday afternoon.
These porous defenses should leave the door open for offensive outbursts on each side. The game total finished at 166 in the first matchup, despite Omaha shooting just 33% from downtown, and only 21 assists being generated between the two teams.
Denver has allowed the 16th-most points in the country, surrendering 80 or more points in 17 of their 27 games played. That includes giving up 93 points to D2 Colorado-Colorado Springs. The Pioneers have struggled to defend the three all season, and should have problems keeping a lid on an Omaha team that typically connects from the perimeter at a high rate.
On the other side of the floor, Omaha also has trouble getting stops. The team gave up 94 points in its latest outing against St. Thomas-Minnesota and has allowed 80 or more points in 10 games this season. The Mavericks allow a ton of threes, which should cause some problems against a Denver team with a top 20 three-point percentage in the country.
Expect both teams to push the pace and generate offense throughout. Denver and Omaha cleared the game total in their first matchup despite underwhelming performances for their respective standards. Expect fireworks on both sides in Sunday’s rematch.
