The NBA world pauses for All-Star festivities over the next few days, but hoops fans seeking competitive play are in luck. There are plenty of matchups taking place across the NCAA landscape on Saturday. At 6 p.m. EST, the West Virginia Mountaineers head to Orlando to take on the UCF Knights in a Big 12 duel as both teams look to bounce back from losses.
Here’s a prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for WVU vs. UCF on Saturday, February 14.
West Virginia vs. UCF prediction, preview
West Virginia Mountaineers
The Mountaineers are just 6-5 in Big 12 play, but a 15-9 overall record does show that this is a quality team. They’ve gone just 3-6 against Quad 1 teams, but did down No. 22 Kansas earlier in the season. While only 1-3 against Quad 2 teams, they’ve also downed Cincinnati twice as well and are unbeaten against Quad 3 and 4 sides.
West Virginia comes in at the edge of the NCAA Tournament-caliber squads at 61st via the KenPom rankings with a +12.82 NETRTG. While the program’s offense isn’t much to write about, the defensive side of things remains excellent. The Mountaineers allow just 63.6 PPG to opponents, the nation’s fifth-lowest mark among Division I teams, and their 98.2 DRTG ranks 28th. That lockdown defense comes by slowing the pace to a grinding halt. WVU averages only 70.0 PPG and doesn’t shoot particularly efficiently with a 44.5% FG% and 34.2% 3P%. The Mountaineers also post just 13.1 assists per game with a 1.18 AST/TO ratio that falls 177th in the nation. Finally, they pull down a respectable 35.2 rebounds per game.
UCF Knights
As for UCF, the Knights are also in the midst of a quality season overall at 17-6. A 6-5 conference record isn’t the most striking and they’ve lost two straight games to Cincinnati and Houston, but a standout win over Texas Tech and victories over Kansas and Texas A&M make up their three Quad 1 successes (though they’ve dropped six to opponents in a similar spot). However, the Knights are unbeaten against all other opponents, including a perfect 4-0 vs. Quad 2 sides.
UCF ranks 49th via KenPom metrics with a +15.44 NETRTG, playing the 40th-hardest schedule in the sport in terms of opponent NETRTG as well. The Knights average 82.4 PPG with the 34th-best ORTG, shooting 47.3% from the field and 37.3% from three (30th in the nation). They dish out 16.1 assists with a 1.416 AST/TO ratio, good for 62nd as well. With 37.6 rebounds per game, they also fall 59th on the glass and particularly excel on the offensive boards with the 35th-ranked OREB%, too. On the flip side, though, this team also allows 77.8 PPG to opponents on the other end. What does that mean? It’s usually boat race or bust for UCF.
West Virginia vs. UCF pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists UCF as a 3.5-point favorite at home this evening with -175 odds to win outright. West Virginia holds +145 odds on the Moneyline with the game total set at 138.5 combined points.
This should be a very interesting matchup thanks to the stylistic differences of both sides. WVU slows the tempo and falls 330th in FGA per game with just 54.5, which is part of what allows the defensive numbers to look the way they do. On the opposite side, UCF’s mark of 63.1 FGA per contest means the Knights are 15th in the stat, pushing the pace and getting into shootouts to win. This creates a real dichotomy of sorts, so it’s tough to make a call on which side comes out ahead.
However, it’s a little bit easier to buy in on West Virginia having the upper hand. The Mountaineers are truly elite on defense and tend to force opponents into playing their way. While having just three double-digit scorers in Honor Huff (15.4 PPG), Brenen Lorient (11.3 PPG) and Treysen Eaglestaff (10.0 PPG) means it could be difficult to keep up with the Knights’ own offensive talent, WVU does have the advantage of being able to lock down opponents. The Mountaineers may see more success for themselves scoring the ball than usual against a weak defense, and they’ve actually managed a better scoring margin than UCF on the campaign thus far.
Personally, I’m taking West Virginia to grind this game to a sluggish pace and muck things up enough to make the other side uncomfortable. It’ll be close, but the Mountaineers are far more used to playing in these circumstances and can cover here.
