Alabama (17-7, 7-4) is on track for a sixth-straight NCAA Tournament appearance. As always, this group loves to put up points. Still, a shoot first, play defense later approach has some analysts down on the Crimson Tide. Taking care of business down the stretch against a tough SEC conference would ease many of those concerns. A home matchup with South Carolina (11-13, 2-9) offers a prime resume-boosting opportunity.
Alabama enters this afternoon as 17.5-point favorites (-108) over South Carolina. The total is set at 168.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Saturday’s game between the Gamecocks and Crimson Tide.
South Carolina vs. Alabama prediction, preview
A second-straight losing season is more than likely for South Carolina. In many ways, that’s a consequence of playing in the loaded Southeastern Conference. Regardless, it’s not as if this squad does anything particularly well. They rank outside of KenPom’s top 100 schools in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. The Gamecocks have gone 2-13 against Quad 1 and 2 opponents so far.
If nothing else, SC is a fairly well-rounded group on offense. five different players on the roster are averaging at least ten points per game. However, there isn’t much here in terms of floor spacing. South Carolina is knocking down just 30.9% of its shots from beyond the arc. That sits at 328th among 365 Division I schools. However, it’s not as if the Gamecocks dominate the paint. Big men Elijah Strong and Mike Sharavjamts are their tallest players at just 6’8″.
Alabama’s game plan is no secret: play fast and put up points. The Tide lead all of college basketball with a 73.8 adjusted tempo on KenPom. That’s led to some impressive counting stats this season. Labaron Philon Jr. is a contender for SEC Player of the Year. Through 23 games, he’s accounted for 21.4 points, 3.6 rebounds and 4.8 assists while shooting 50% from the field. This guard-heavy attack also depends heavily on Aden Holloway (16.9 PPG) and Latrell Wrightsell (12.3 PPG).
Down low, Amari Allen and ‘senior’ Charles Bediako form an intimidating double-big duo, at least on offense. The rub on this Tide crew is that they aren’t very interested in stopping their opponents. Per KenPom, their 102.4 adjusted defensive efficiency is 62nd in the nation. That’s far below the mark for most other championship contenders. South Carolina’s balanced offense might be able to take advantage of this vulnerable unit.
South Carolina vs. Alabama pick, best bet
It’s worth noting that Alabama will be without an important depth piece tonight in Taylor Bol Bowen. That alone isn’t what you’d call a game-changer, but it does make gaining separation more difficult for the Tide. In comparison, South Carolina has hung tough on the road vs. quality opponents such as Clemson, Texas and Auburn. Against a lackluster defense, the Gamecocks have enough talent to prevent a blowout on Saturday.
