Two of the best Super Bantamweight contenders in boxing, Ryosuke Nishida and Bryan Mercado, will face off on Sunday, February 15. This fight is the Main Event of a boxing card occurring in Osaka, Japan, at the Sumiyoshi SportsCenter. The Main Card for this event begins at 3:00 a.m. ET.
Here is my best bet and prediction for Sunday’s contest between Ryosuke Nishida vs. Bryan Mercado.
Ryosuke Nishida by Decision or Technical Decision (-170)
One of the best pound-for-pound boxers in the sport, Naoya Inoue, is currently the Undisputed Super Bantamweight Champion. Another dominant fighter in this division is Junto Nakatani, who is undefeated and will likely be Inoue’s next challenger. But after Inoue and Nakatani fight, the winner of this bout between Nishida and Mercado could be next for a title shot.
Currently on BoxRec, Mercado is No. 3 at 122 pounds while Nishida is No. 9 in the division. Both fighters in this contest have one loss, but Mercado has a massive edge in experience as he is 32-1 while Nishida is 10-1. 26 of Mercado’s 32 victories have come by knockout, and he has the power advantage in this fight. Nishida is a former IBF Bantamweight Champion and is coming off a loss to Nakatani in June 2025. In his career, Nishida has only two knockouts, relying on his movement and a versatile arsenal to break down opponents.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Nishida is a -390 favorite with Mercado being the underdog at +285. The over/under is set at 10.5 rounds, with the over at -390 and the under at +240. This fight is -265 to go the distance and +190 to not go to the judges’ scorecards.
After feeling Nakatani’s power in his last fight, Nishida will likely be extra careful against another elite power puncher. Mercado’s lone career loss came in September 2015, his last professional fight, and he has since won 31 consecutive contests. But Mercado’s last two wins were against Florentino Perez, who is 14-10-2, and Nicolas Paz, who is 8-9-3. I favor Nishida in this bout because of his recent high-level experience and the multiple ways he can win. Eight of Nishida’s last nine victories have come by decison. In this bout, Nishida is -170 to win by decision or technical decision.
