The NBA world pauses for All-Star festivities over the next few days, but hoops fans seeking competitive play are in luck. There are plenty of matchups taking place across the NCAA landscape on Saturday — one of which sees the No. 11 North Carolina Tar Heels take on the lowly Pittsburgh Panthers in the ACC. This is likely going to be a lopsided affair, but is there betting value anywhere to be found?
Here’s a prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Pitt vs. UNC on Saturday, February 14.
Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina prediction, preview
Pittsburgh Panthers
Pitt has never been known for its basketball program, so a 9-16 overall record and 2-10 mark in a competitive ACC come as no surprise. The Panthers have dropped four straight outings and are 1-6 on the road as they’ll be tonight. They’ve also dropped every single Quad 1 game with just two wins out of six tries in Quad 2, which came over Ohio State and Wake Forest.
The KenPom rankings put Pittsburgh at 109th in the nation with a +5.99 NETRTG. The Panthers have played a fairly tough schedule at 41st in opponent NETRTG, but it’s clear they still struggle on both ends of the floor. They average just 70.1 PPG on offense, 278th among all Division I teams, and give up 71.5 PPG to opponents, 95th. Pitt shoots just 43.2% from the field and 33.0% from three, also posting 13.0 assists with a poor AST/TO ratio that falls 191st in the nation.
North Carolina Tar Heels
The Tar Heels are, of course, a historic program with plenty of wins under their belts. The last couple of years have carried some high peaks and low valleys, but UNC does look like it’s on pace for another NCAA Tournament appearance at 19-5 overall even if a 7-4 record in the ACC is less-than ideal. North Carolina is 4-5 against Quad 1 teams and 2-0 against Quad 2 opponents.
At 28th in the KenPom rankings with a +21.75 NETRTG, the Tar Heels have looked quite formidable at points. They lean on offense, scoring 81.9 PPG with a 47.7% FG% and 34.4% mark from three. This team moves the effectively with 16.8 assists per game, and with the ninth-best AST/TO ratio, they also sit 17th in turnovers while protecting the ball well. UNC is also strong on the glass with 39.3 rebounds per game, 27th-best in the country and particularly excelling on the defensive boards. Defensively, North Carolina gives up 70.7 PPG, 78th in the nation.
Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists North Carolina as an 11.5-point favorite on Saturday at home with -700 odds to win on the Moneyline. Pittsburgh’s odds of an outright upset sit at +500 with the game total set at 144.5 points. Betting splits indicate that 98% of straight bets favor on the Cougars to win with 84% on the over.
Rather than taking a spread pick, it makes more sense to target the under on the game total in this contest. Pitt’s defense looks decent at a surface level, but the 71.5 PG allowed comes more as a result of a slow tempo than actual defensive prowess. Opponents shoot 46.0% from the field (256th) and 35.4% from three (255th) against the Panthers, which bodes quite well for the Tar Heels. Usually, that may serve as encouragement for the over, but North Carolina just lost leading scorer Caleb Wilson (19.8 PPG) to a hand fracture for the foreseeable future. That’s a major blow to a team that felt capable of competing into the postseason, so game one without the star may result in a sluggish attack.
There are just two other scorers on the Tar Heels’ roster who average double-digit points, so who steps up remains somewhat unclear. Plus, Pitt sits 195th in the nation in FGA per game as well, so banking on a somewhat ugly outing makes plenty of sense on Saturday, though UNC should win it in the end.
