The Ole Miss Rebels host the Mississippi State Bulldogs on Saturday night in an SEC college basketball matchup. The game tips off at 6:30 p.m. EST in Oxford, Mississippi.
The Rebels are listed as 4.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook with the total set at O/U 144.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and pick for this SEC college basketball matchup.
Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State prediction, preview
Ole Miss basketball is in an awful place. The Rebels have lost six straight games, with each of the last three coming by double digits. The Rebels are the lowest-scoring team in the SEC, averaging just 73.9 points per game this season. Ole Miss also plays extremely slow, ranking 302nd in the nation in adjusted tempo. To succeed while playing that slow, the Rebels need to execute well in the halfcourt on both ends of the floor. Unfortunately, they have really struggled on both ends of the floor as of late. For a team that plays so methodically, Ole Miss should be good at getting to the free-throw line efficiently. However, they rank last in the conference in free-throw attempts per game. It should be a struggle for Ole Miss to score tonight.
Mississippi State is tied with Ole Miss, with a 3-8 conference record. The Bulldogs are on a three-game losing streak coming into this game. They are actually a solid defensive team, ranking 60th in the nation in defensive rating. However, just like Ole Miss, they struggle to put the ball in the basket. The only difference is that Mississippi State has one standout scorer who can carry the team. Josh Hubbard is averaging 21 points per game this season, the 15th-most in the nation. He is coming off a 31-point performance against Tennessee and should be feeling good coming into this one.
Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State pick
My best bet for this game is for Mississippi State to cover as 4.5-point underdogs. These teams both struggle to score, but Mississippi State is the better defensive team. They rank 60th in defensive rating, while Ole Miss ranks 63rd. The Bulldogs also have by far the best pure scorer on the floor, Josh Hubbard. If this game is tight down the stretch, Hubbard should be able to get buckets when Mississippi State needs them the most.
One key factor could be who gets extra possessions. Mississippi State leads the SEC in average turnover differential, with a +2.2 differential per game. Meanwhile, Ole Miss has an average -1.7 turnover differential per game. The last time these teams played, it went down to the wire, with Ole Miss winning by one point. It should be another tight game with Mississippi State keeping it within 4.5 points.
