It is a loaded slate of college basketball on Saturday with plenty of notable matchups as the season hits its full stride. Tipping off at 1:00 p.m. ET, the Northwestern Wildcats will face off with the Nebraska Cornhuskers.
This is the second matchup of the season between these two Big Ten opponents. On January 17th, Nebraska produced a 77-58 victory over Northwestern. The Cornhuskers will now look to defend their home court and produce a similar result.
Looking at the odds, Nebraska is a 13.5-point home favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. Northwestern holds +850 odds of getting the outright win, with the game total set at O/U 143.5 points.
Let’s take a look at a preview for each team and a prediction on the DraftKings Sportsbook odds.
Northwestern at Nebraska prediction, preview
Northwestern enters with a 10-15 record on the season, and has slipped to 2-10 in Big Ten Conference play. They enter this matchup on a four-game losing streak, which came against Washington, Illinois, Iowa, and Michigan. The Wildcats have lost 10 of their last 12. On the season, Northwestern has gone 10-13-2 against the spread, and the game total is 13-11-1 to the over/under.
Nick Martinelli headlines the production with a Big Ten-leading 22.5 points per game, along with 6.5 rebounds and shooting 44.2% on three-point attempts. Arrinten Page adds 10.9 points and 4.7 rebounds, while Jayden Reid is the lone other player averaging in double figures with 10.9 points per game. Angelo Ciaravino, Max Green, and Jake West each also make key impacts in the rotation.
As a team, Northwestern is producing 75.0 points per game, which ranks 216th in the country. They rank 132nd in offensive rating, 153rd in field goal percentage, and 309th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 73.2 points per game against them, which ranks 166th. The Wildcats also rank 256th in defensive rating, 140th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 100th in opponents’ three-point percentage.
Nebraska holds a 21-3 record on the season, and has gone 10-3 in conference play. Their three losses have come across their past four games against Michigan, Illinois, and Purdue in overtime in their previous game. The Cornhuskers opened the season with a 20-0 record and are looking to rebound from their stretch of tough matchups. On the season, Nebraska has gone 13-10-1 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 16 of their 24 games.
Pryce Sandfort is the team’s leading scorer with 17.0 points and 4.6 rebounds, while shooting 39.8% from deep. Rienk Mast adds 14.8 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 3.2 assists, while Braden Frager and Jamarques Lawrence also average in double figures. Berke Buyuktuncel adds 6.9 points and a team-high 6.0 rebounds, while Sam Hoiberg and Connor Essegian each play key roles in the rotation.
Fred Hoiberg’s squad is averaging 79.8 points per game, which ranks 104th among D1 squads. The Cornhuskers rank 67th in offensive rating, 74th in field goal percentage, 75th in three-point percentage, and attempt the 15th-most perimeter attempts in college basketball. Defensively, opponents are scoring the 25th-fewest points per game against Nebraska, at 66.7 points per game. They also rank 25th in defensive rating, 22nd in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 30th in opponents’ three-point percentage.
Northwestern at Nebraska pick, best bet
There is a gap in talent between these two teams, well beyond what the 13.5-point spread indicates. Nebraska was off to the races this season, looking like one of the best teams in college basketball. They tripped up on a brutal stretch in their schedule, and this is the perfect bounce-back type of matchup they will be eager to take advantage of.
Nebraska won 77-58 in the first matchup, comfortably covering the 4.5-point spread. The Cornhuskers led for 87% of this matchup, shooting 51% from the field and 42% on three-point attempts while turning the ball over just five times. Northwestern had no answer for Pryce Sandfort, who finished with 22 points, and Braden Frager exploded for 20 points off the bench.
This second matchup will now return to Nebraska’s home court. Northwestern is 3-4-1 as an away team this year, 2-3 ATS against ranked opponents, and 5-8-1 in conference matchups this year.
There is a massive discrepancy in three-point production between these two teams that I expect to be put on display in the same way it was in the first matchup. Northwestern ranks 15th in the country in three-point volume by attempting 30.8 perimeter shots per game, and connecting at the 75th-best rate at 35.8% as a team. In contrast, Northwestern ranks 293rd in three-point volume by attempting 20.1 perimeter shots per game. They also have struggled with their efficiency, connecting on just 31.5% of these long-range shots, which ranks 309th among D1 teams.
Expect Nebraska to put up points at a rate that Northwestern cannot match. The Cornhuskers still deserve to be discussed in the upper echelon of college basketball, even if they have slipped up in recent games against teams in this same tier. This is the type of get-right spot they will be eager to capitalize on and expect Nebraska to produce a victory well beyond the 13.5-point spread.
