The NBA world pauses for All-Star festivities over the next few days, but hoops fans seeking competitive play are in luck. There are plenty of matchups taking place across the NCAA landscape on Saturday. In the Mountain West, the Nevada Wolf Pack and SDSU Aztecs are both looking to retain their respective places near the top of the conference standings during tonight’s matchup at 10 p.m. EST.
Here’s a prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Nevada vs. SDSU on Saturday, February 14.
Nevada vs. SDSU prediction, preview
Nevada Wolf Pack
The Wolf Pack are a strong 17-7 on the campaign and a 9-4 conference record doesn’t look bad by any means. They sit fourth in the Mountain West standings and generally beat the teams they need to beat, losing just one game against Quad 3 and 4 opponents. Against Quad 1 squads, Nevada is 0-4, but the program has also split its four Quad 2 games at 2-2 with wins over Boise State and Colorado State, and losses to Washington and this SDSU group.
Nevada slots in at 56th in the KenPom rankings with a +13.38 NETRTG. The Wolf Pack are 307th in adjusted tempo as well, dragging games into the mud. The team is fairly average across the board, averaging 77.0 PPG with the 56th-ranked ORTG while giving up 71.2 PPG to opponents. They shoot just 44.0% from the field and are one of the sport’s worst sides in 2P%, and despite shooting 38.7% from three (the nation’s 12th-best mark), they attempt those shots at one of the lowest rates of any program. Nevada posts 14.5 assists per game with an excellent AST/TO ratio of 1.594, 28th overall. However, the side is middle-of-the-pack with 35.8 rebounds per outing.
SDSU Aztecs
As for the Aztecs, they’re second in the Mountain West at 11-2 in conference play and 17-6 overall. After winning back-to-back contests, they’re now looking to build a streak with a statement tonight. They’re certainly capable — while only 1-4 against Quad 1 opponents, SDSU is 4-1 against Quad 2s and 11-1 against Quad 3/4 combined.
In the latest KenPom rankings, SDSU comes in at 43rd overall with a +18.36 NETRTG. The Aztecs are better on defense than offense, holding opponents to 70.4 PPG and sitting 15th in DRTG. Those opposing teams shoot just 39.8% from the field, and average 15.5 turnovers per game, so there’s something to be said about the disruption this group causes. They pull down 34.7 rebounds per contest, too. Offensively, SDSU scores 78.3 PPG with an efficient 47.7% FG% and solid 36.0% mark from three. The Aztec’s 15.3 assists per game are pedestrian, as is a 1.217 AST/TO ratio that falls 152nd in the sport.
Nevada vs. SDSU pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists SDSU as a -8.5 favorite at home tonight with -380 odds to win outright. Nevada holds +300 odds of a Moneyline victory with the game total at 139.5.
The Wolf Pack are having a solid campaign, but aren’t quite the team the Aztecs are. Last time out, SDSU downed Nevada 73-68 in a close contest on the road. This time around, the game takes place in San Diego, where the Aztecs are 11-1 on the season and have won nine straight contests.
Nevada has the game’s top scorer in Corey Camper Jr. and his 17.7 PPG, also knocking down an incredible 44.8% of his three-point attempts. The guard is a nifty bucket getter, but he struggled last time out against this team with just eight points on 4-for-11 shooting. The Aztecs’ defense may bother him once again, and while a better outing may be in the cards, it’s unlikely he gets to 30+ as he has in two of his last three contests. SDSU doesn’t have a true standout scorer with three players in double digits and none above 12.4 PPG, but the unit plays excellent team ball and should overwhelm its opponent on the defensive end tonight. With an average scoring margin of +8.0, the Aztecs should flirt with the spread and cover tonight, though it won’t be a blowout.
