The Olympic Men’s Hockey action in Group B is winding to a close on Saturday. The surprise of the tournament, Slovakia, is looking to secure a group victory and a bye into the quarterfinals. Sweden, one of the true contenders, needs a convincing win to steal the group away.
Team Sweden is a -550 Moneyline favorite to win this one, and the puck line is set at -2.5 on the DraftKings Sportsbook. If you think the Slovaks can pull an upset, they’re priced at +410. The total for this game is set at 5.5 goals. Let’s dig into a prediction and pick for this game.
Slovakia vs. Sweden prediction, preview
Before we break down these teams, it’s important to know what is at stake. Slovakia is the only 2-0-0-0 team in the group, and would win the group outright with a win or an overtime loss. A massive upset win over Finland, followed by a tight win over Italy, has put them in pole position. But Sweden still has a chance to win Group B.
The Swedes, after losing to Finland, are 1-0-0-1 with an even goal differential. That puts them in an exact tie with Finland for the second spot in the group. If they beat Slovakia by at least two goals and the Finns lose (or win by fewer goals), they can grab the top spot and a likely bye.
As a reminder, all 12 teams advance to the qualification play-off at a minimum. The top four teams in the group stage receive a bye, while the remaining eight teams play head-to-head to determine the final four teams in the quarterfinals. The prospect of a bye is a strong motivator.
Now that we know the stakes, let’s look at the teams. We’ll start with the Slovakian team that has everyone buzzing. After stealing away a bronze medal at the 2022 Winter Olympics, they’re back with a vengeance. Once again, young stud defenseman Juraj Slafkovsky is leading the way after scoring seven goals in seven games during the Beijing run.
Though the team has only seven NHLers on the roster, they have plenty of time playing together and a physical presence that makes opposing teams uncomfortable. The experience and physicality, combined with Slafkovsky turning into prime Chris Pronger when he puts on his country’s jersey, is one heck of a formula.
Sweden has their own superstar on the blue line leading the team. Rasmus Dahlin has picked up three points through two games, continuing to establish himself as the face of his country’s team. They’re stacked on the blue line with stars like Erik Karlsson and Victor Hedman to go alongside Dahlin. But it’s the offense that has been the problem so far.
The Swedes have piled more shots on goal than any other team in the tournament, with a whopping 95 pucks on net through two games. 60 of those came in a 5-2 victory over an Italian team that, frankly, does not belong in this tournament. Yet they lost against Finland 4-1 despite outshooting them 35-24. Point blank, they’re going to need their skaters to convert chances. More screens, more tips, and sharpness on rebounds will do it. Pucks on net are great, but there are a lot of talented netminders in this tournament; you can’t just dump and pray.
So, who is going to come out of this one victorious?
Slovakia vs. Sweden pick, best bet
This one is tough. On the one hand, Sweden is overdue for a convincing win against a good team. On the other hand, the Slovaks have proven themselves at this level time and time again.
One thing is for sure: neither offense has looked particularly potent so far. In this shortened rink, offenses have been buzzing, but I expect the netminders for these teams to have the final say. I also like tossing a bit on the Slovaks to win, because who doesn’t love a Cinderella story?
Best Bets: Slovakia Moneyline (+410) and Under 5.5 Total Goals (+110)
