The NBA world pauses for All-Star festivities over the next few days, but hoops fans seeking competitive play are in luck. There are plenty of matchups taking place across the NCAA landscape on Saturday. An inter-conference clash at 8 p.m. EST will pit the Memphis Tigers of the AAC against the Utah State Aggies of the Mountain West.
Here’s a prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Memphis vs. Utah State on Saturday, February 14.
Memphis vs. Utah State prediction, preview
Memphis Tigers
The Penny Hardaway era at Memphis has been defined by quality campaigns meeting quick ends in the opening rounds of the NCAA Tournament… if the program even makes it to the dance. At 12-12 so far this season and 7-5 in the American, getting to 20 wins feels like it may be more complicated than in years past. The Tigers are winless against Quad 1 teams and just 2-5 against Quad 2 sides, so play against higher-end competition hasn’t been stellar.
Per the KenPom rankings, Memphis falls 99th nationally with a NETRTG of +7.42. This team is something of a one-trick pony, leaning on the 35th-best DRTG to win most of its games. The Tigers allow 72.8 PPG, scoring 74.8 on the other end with an average scoring margin of just +2.0. They shoot a very poor 43.7% from the field and 32.2% from three, dishing 14.0 assists with a rough AST/TO ratio of 0.98, which falls 283rd among D1 teams. There are some stronger aspects of this unit though, such as the 37.1 rebounds per game they pull down and pretty good play on the offensive boards. Beyond that, the Tigers average 9.4 steals, the ninth-best mark in the nation along with 14.3 opponent turnovers per outing, 25th.
Utah State Aggies
Utah State isn’t playing in the toughest conference either out in the Mountain West, but the program sits atop the competition with a 12-2 record in MW play with a 21-3 mark overall. The Aggies have pulled off a 3-1 suite against Quad 1 teams thus far and are 5-1 in Quad 2 as well, so they’ve proven their ability to compete with some of the best so far this season.
The Aggies are flat-out excellent on both sides of the floor. KenPom rankings place them 25th with a +22.20 NETRTG, and they’re in the top 40 in both ORTG and DRTG. They score 83.0 PPG, 37th in the nation, allowing 69.5 on the other end, good for 58th. Scoring efficiency is a strong suit at 50.7% from the field, the 12th-best mark in the country as well, also connecting on 35.6% of three-pointers. Utah State also moves the ball effectively with 17.4 assists and a 1.563 AST/TO ratio, which falls 34th overall. While perfectly average on the glass with 35.4 rebounds per game, the Aggies do post 9.0 steals a night — also good for 20th, and they’re 22nd in opponent turnovers.
Memphis vs. Utah State pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists Utah State as a -13.5 favorite at home tonight with -1100 odds to win outright. Memphis holds +700 odds of a Moneyline victory with the game total at 154.5.
The Tigers have looked formidable in the past, but this simply isn’t their year. Hardaway is facing some of the most significant challenges of his tenure with the program, which is yet to even make the third round of the national tourney since he arrived. Despite playing a fairly pedestrian schedule, Memphis hasn’t handled business on several occasions when it should have, dropping games to UNLV, Tulane and North Texas, all Quad 3 or 4 opponents. The Tigers also have just two double-digit scorers in Dug McDaniel (12.9 PPG) and Sincere Parker (11.7 PPG).
Meanwhile, Utah State has taken down some very good teams so far this season and has a couple of star guards between MJ Collins Jr. and Mason Falslev, averaging 18.3 and 16.1 PPG while shooting in the 39% range from three. The surrounding roster has put forth excellent two-way play and can score in a hurry as well, so this may be an easy matchup for the Aggies. They’re 10-1 at home while Memphis is only 2-7 on the road, and with a much better group playing team ball, Utah State should dominate here.
