College basketball’s Valentine’s Day slate is jam-packed with intriguing matchups. Tipping off at 6 p.m. ET, the Tennessee Volunteers will host the LSU Tigers in an SEC showdown.
Tennessee enters as a 12.5-point home favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, while LSU sits as a +800 underdog. The game total is set at 144.5 points.
LSU vs. Tennessee preview
LSU got off to a 12-1 start to the season but has since gone just 2-9 in SEC play, dropping to 14-10 overall. The Tigers enter this matchup on the heels of back-to-back losses against Georgia and No. 21 Arkansas. They are 13-11 against the spread and 9-13-2 to the over/under.
Matt McMahon’s squad is scoring 81.5 points per game, which ranks 55th in the country. LSU ranks 52nd in offensive rating and 39th in field-goal percentage, but just 275th in three-point efficiency. On the other end, the Tigers have allowed 75.4 points per game, which ranks 195th in the country. LSU ranks 105th in defensive rating, 104th in opponent field-goal percentage, and 250th in opponent three-point percentage.
Injuries have been a real factor in LSU’s season slip. Dedan Thomas Jr., who leads the team with 15.3 points and 6.5 assists per night, has missed eight games with a lingering foot injury, including the last three contests. The UNLV transfer remains listed as day-to-day, but he’s re-aggravated the injury a few times now. Jalen Reed was adding 9.5 points and 5.7 rebounds until he suffered a torn Achilles. Max Mackinnon has stepped up in their absences, averaging 14.5 points a night, but left LSU’s previous game after 20 minutes due to knee pain. While not expected to be a long-term issue, his status is worth monitoring as we head into Saturday.
Sorting through healthy bodies, Marquel Sutton is adding 13.4 points and a team-leading 7.8 rebounds per night. Michael Nwoko chips in 13.3 points and 5.5 boards on an SEC-best 64.6% field-goal percentage. Pablo Tamba, Robert Miller III, Rashad King, and Jalen Reece each also play key roles in the rotation.
Tennessee is 17-7 overall and 7-4 in conference play. The Volunteers have won five of their last six games and are coming off Wednesday’s road victory over Mississippi State. Their losses have come against Kentucky (twice), Florida, Arkansas, Illinois, Syracuse, and Kansas. They have gone 10-13-1 against the spread, falling under the game total in 14 of 24 games.
Rick Barnes’ squad is averaging 81.4 points per game, which ranks 56th in the country. The Volunteers also sit 41st in offensive rating, 66th in field-goal percentage, 106th in three-point percentage, and third in rebounds. Defensively, Tennessee has allowed the nation’s 59th-fewest points per game and ranks 14th in defensive rating, 25th in opponent field-goal percentage, and 20th in opponent three-point percentage.
Ja’Kobi Gillespie headlines the production with 18.5 points, 5.3 assists, and 1.6 steals per game. Nate Ament adds 17.5 points and a team-high 6.3 rebounds. J.P. Estrella, Jaylen Carey, and Bishop Boswell play key roles in the rotation.
LSU vs. Tennessee pick, best bet
If LSU were at full strength for this matchup, they could probably keep things competitive. But sometimes seasons are a war of attrition, and the Tigers are currently losing that battle.
The Tigers have dropped nine of their last 11 games and are just 2-15 in their last 17 conference matchups. They are also 1-4 against the spread in their last five contests against Tennessee. On the other side of the court, the Volunteers have been playing strong basketball and have covered the spread in three of their last four games.
Don’t count on LSU’s defense to keep up with the offensive firepower of Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Nate Ament, who are really starting to click together. The Volunteers will also have a stronger defense that should contain the Tigers’ offense without several key contributors. LSU was limited to 62 points in its previous loss to Arkansas and has been held to 71 or fewer in four of its last six games.
That’s simply not enough to take down the Volunteers. While this is a significant spread, Tennessee has excelled at breezing past inferior teams this season — and this version of the LSU team fits that mold. Tennessee ranks 28th in the nation with an average point differential of +11.8, and it has picked up 11 of its 17 wins by at least 13 points. Expect the Volunteers to follow the same trend on Saturday night.
