Kansas vs. Iowa State College Basketball prediction, preview
The Jayhawks are picking up momentum since a January 10th loss at West Virginia, going 8-0 straight up and 7-1 against the spread since then. The only failed cover in that span came when laying 18.5 versus Utah, with a look ahead spot to undefeated Arizona on deck. Kansas peaked on Monday night, taking down the No. 1 Wildcats and handing them their first loss of the season. It did so as a home underdog without potential No. 1 overall pick Darryn Peterson.
If there’s a letdown spot coming for the Jayhawks, this feels like it could be it, and it just so happens to be a very strong bounce-back spot for the Cyclones for multiple reasons. Kansas began this winning streak with a win as a home underdog over this Iowa State team, dominating the game wire-to-wire in an eventual 21-point victory.
Not only will the Cyclones be looking to get the Jayhawks back for an embarrassing loss last month, but they also just took their third loss of the season on Tuesday night as a 7.5-point road favorite at TCU. All three of Iowa State’s losses this season have come in true road games, and it now gets to return home where the Cyclones have a 13-0 record on the season.
As elite as the Jayhawks are on both sides of the ball, ranking 40th on offense and ninth on defense on KenPom, Iowa State has been better. The Cyclones boast the nation’s 17th-ranked offense and sixth-ranked defense, per the same metrics. I also expect the home team to earn extra possessions in this game on the glass. Iowa State is a top-20 team in the country in rebound percentage, and jumps to top-10 at home where it grabs nearly 60% of the boards. Kansas ranks just 85th in rebound rate, and could have some issues on both ends.
The Cyclones are grabbing over 36% of their offensive rebounds at home, while the Jayhawks just barely rank top-100 in defensive rebounding rate. Meanwhile, Iowa State is the second-best defensive rebounding team in the country when playing at home (82.6%), which should limit second chance points for a poor Kansas team when it comes to offensive rebounding (223rd nationally).
As well as the Jayhawks are playing right now, I’m expecting the best effort of the season from the Cyclones in this game. I’ll back Iowa State to get back on track off their loss earlier this week, and avenge last month’s loss at Allen Fieldhouse.
