The 2026 Winter Olympics continue in Milan, Italy on Saturday. The Group Stage of the men’s hockey tournament is in full swing and has provided some excellent moments thus far. On Saturday morning stateside, host nation Italy faces an uphill battle against a talent-laden Finland roster. Puck drop is scheduled for 10:40 a.m. EST.
Below, we’ll hit a brief preview, prediction and betting pick for Saturday’s Olympic hockey matchup between Italy and Finland.
Italy vs. Finland prediction, preview
In Group B, both of these teams have played two games apiece and close out the Group Stage with this matchup. The stakes are high for Finland, which maintains a shot at winning the group if Slovakia loses its contest to Sweden.
The Italian side is likely just thankful to be playing in front of its home fans during this tournament. With two losses at the hands of Slovakia and Sweden, it’s clear to see this team won’t be competing deep into the tournament. Italy lost its opener to Sweden in a 5-2 finish and was outshot 60-22 in that contest, with the only goals coming via Luca Frigo and Matt Bradley. The Italians were hilariously outclassed in that appearance against one of the tournament favorites, but did put up a better performance against Slovakia in game two. They lost that one 3-2, with Bradley netting another goal and Dustin Gazley notching his first of the Group Stage. Italy was once again outshot in that contest, this time 38-22.
As for Finland, the team came out quite flat to open the tournament but put forth a much better effort in its second showing. The Finns didn’t initially play like a team laden with NHL talent like Mikko Rantanen, Sebastian Aho, Mikael Granlund, Artturi Lehkonen, Miro Heiskanen and more — losing to Slovakia 4-1 marked a significant valley to open the Group Stage. However, Team Finland won its second contest 4-1 over an equally talented Sweden squad. Despite being out-shot 24-35, they found four goals from a blend of NHL and Liiga talent, one of which came shorthanded. Netminder Juuse Saros also looked like his vintage self, making 34 saves in a variety of ways to shake off an ugly showing in the previous game.
Italy vs. Finland pick, best bet
This projects as a blowout given the discrepancies in talent. Finland is a 4.5-goal favorite on the puck line with -4500 odds on the Moneyline. Italy’s odds of an outright upset sit at +1700, while the game total comes in at 6.5 combined goals.
Shoutout to the Italians for hosting the Winter Olympics this year, but the writing is on the wall for its hockey team. Without any current NHL players, the chances of the host nation hanging in there against one of the world’s premier national teams remain miniscule. Italy doesn’t look like it belongs in this competition, so even with the Finns a smidge unpredictable to open the Group Stage over their first two games, they’re capable of dismantling the Italian side. I like them to make an early statement, so Finland -1.5 on the first period puck line makes sense to me at plus value here.
