Gonzaga vs. Santa Clara College Basketball prediction, preview
We know that Saint Mary’s has been Gonzaga’s primary competition in recent seasons in the WCC, but this Santa Clara team has stepped up and entered the competition as well. The Broncos are riding a nine-game winning streak into Saturday night’s showdown against the Bulldogs, with their last loss coming in Spokane as a 17-point underdog — a game that was decided by 12 points and Santa Clara covered as the underdog.
Now the Broncos play host to the Zags on Saturday night, with a chance to realistically win the conference if they can get the win. No doubt, this is a tough conference game for Mark Few and company, who have had their struggles with Santa Clara recently. The Broncos have actually earned a win over the Zags in each of the past two seasons — a big upset on the road in January of 2025, and a one-point win at home in 2024. Prior to that, Gonzaga had won 26 in a row in this matchup.
It shows how far Santa Clara’s program has come, and on Saturday night we will learn if it is truly for real this season. The Broncos don’t own a true signature victory, with their only win as an underdog coming when catching 3.5 points in November against Xavier. They also have a nice win over Minnesota as a five-point favorite later that month on a neutral floor.
When Santa Clara has stepped up in competition, it hasn’t gone all that well. It did take a good Saint Louis team down to the wire, eventually losing by a point, and also lost as short favorites to New Mexico and Arizona State. As well as Santa Clara is playing right now, it might be catching the Zags at the wrong time.
The Bulldogs got a big wakeup call earlier this month in a loss to Portland, losing outright as a whopping 22.5-point favorite. Since then, the Zags have gone on to defeat Oregon State by 20 points and Washington State by 30 points, covering both games. Gonzaga got a big Saturday night win over Saint Mary’s a couple of Saturday nights ago, and I think they do the same this week.
The Zags rank top-25 offensively on KenPom, along with the nation’s 12th-ranked defense. Santa Clara ranks 29th and 58th in those categories, respectively. While the offenses may compare similarly, and the pace may lead to a higher scoring game here, I expect Gonzaga to be locked in on defense and control the game on the glass, ultimately playing the key role in this matchup.
While the Broncos are a solid rebounding team, the Bulldogs rank top-10 in the country in rebound rate. Both teams crash the offensive glass at a pretty similar clip, but I don’t expect that to be the case in this game. Gonzaga’s defensive rebounding rate ranks seventh in the country, so I expect them to be able to do as good a job as anybody Santa Clara has seen at preventing offensive rebounds. On the flip side, the Broncos rank just 215th in defensive rebounding, suggesting they will not be able to stop the Zags from getting second chance opportunities.
With all due respect to a good Santa Clara squad, I think this is when we see the Zags come out and flex their muscles as the elite team in the conference. It’s a spot Gonzaga can’t afford to slip up, and I think the scare against Portland has this team not looking past anybody. I’ll lay it with the short road favorite.
