What better way to start off the weekend than some late-night Mountain West action? UNLV (12-12, 7-6) heads up north for a date with conference rival Boise State (15-9, 7-6). The Runnin’ Rebels have struggled under new head coach Josh Pastner. Still, they earned a win in this spot the last time these two teams met. As for the Broncos, a seventh win in eight games would be a major boost to their NCAA Tournament chances.
Boise State enters tonight as 9.5-point favorites (-115) over UNLV. The total is set at 153.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Friday’s game between the Runnin’ Rebels and the Broncos.
UNLV vs. Boise State prediction, preview
One thing is for certain: the Runnin’ Rebels certainly live up to their name. This group is playing at college basketball’s 33rd-quickest adjusted tempo (70.6), per KenPom. That’s led to plenty of scoring, both for and against this squad. UNLV is generating 78.9 points per game, fifth-most in the Mountain West. However, the Rebels are allowing a conference-worst 78.6 points per game on the other end of the floor.
Still, there’s worse things to have than an above-average offense. The headliner in Las Vegas is Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn. The 6’1″ guard is a certified bucket-getter, averaging a MWC-leading 18.7 points per game on 49% shooting (38% 3PT). He’s accompanied by a fairly well-rounded starting lineup. Five different Rebels are generating at least 9.5 points per game. However, this group isn’t exactly dominant on the glass. Despite their rapid pace, the Rebels own a middling 50.2% rebounding percentage, 170th among all Division I schools.
On paper, Boise State isn’t the best at limiting scoring, either. However, the school has a 102.9 adjusted defensive efficiency, good enough for 65th on KenPom. What makes the Broncos dangerous is their depth and size. Six different members of head coach Leon Rice’s rotation are at least 6’7″. Unsurprisingly, BSU has notched the nation’s ninth-highest offensive rebounding rate (77.6%). As previously mentioned, UNLV has struggled at times to box out its opponents.
Granted, the Runnin’ Rebels came out with an 89-85 home win when these two programs last met on January 13th. The biggest difference came on the perimeter, where Boise State went three-of-14 from three-point range (21.4%). Even for a group that doesn’t shoot an an exceptional rate, that number looks like an outlier. The Broncos are knocking down 34.4% of their attempts from beyond the arc this season. Leading scorer Drew Fielder has been especially good in that regard. The Georgetown transfer is putting up 13.5 points on 54/37/76 shooting splits.
UNLV vs. Boise State pick, best bet
If there’s any guarantee with UNLV, this crew loves extending games. The Rebels rank second in the Mountain West with 25.2 free-throw attempts a night. However, they also lead the conference with 21.9 personal fouls per game. Coincidentally enough, Boise State paces all MWC schools in free-throw percentage (77.4%). When these teams last met, they combined for 174 points despite mediocre long-distance shooting. A better showing from beyond the arc, along with some timely fouls and second-chance points, could cash this over.
