The Oregon State Beavers (18-5) and San Francisco Dons (9-14) are set to face off on Thursday night, going head-to-head at The Sobrato Center. The WCC showdown will tip off at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
The Dons are 8.5-point home favorites with -425 moneyline odds, and the total has been set at 141.5 points. Here is a preview of the conference matchup, featuring odds and lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Oregon State at San Francisco Preview, Prediction
Oregon State Preview
A five-game losing streak in nonconference play set the tone for the Beavers this season, even if they did pick up a road win against Arizona State to close out the slate. Oregon State lost by 38 to Santa Clara in their first WCC contest, sparking a 3-6 start to conference action. They broke that up with three-game winning streak against Loyola Marymount, San Diego and Washington State, though, and even their recent 20-point loss to No. 8 Gonzaga was a four-point game with 11 minutes remaining.
Coach Wayne Tinkle only has one player averaging double-figures in his rotation, with junior guard Josiah Lake II putting up 13.3 points per game on .493/.380/.827 shooting splits. Junior forward Isaiah Sy and Missouri State transfer guard Dez White are options 2A and 2B, each averaging 9.7 points per game while shooting 37.6% from deep on over five attempts a night. Oregon State rotates five bigs – Johan Munch, Yaak Yaak, Olavi Suutela, Noah Amenhauser and Jorge Diaz Graham – who get between 12.2 and 20.9 minutes per game.
While Oregon State ranks bottom-five in field goals and field goal attempts and bottom-50 in field goal percentage nationally, they do boast a top-20 free throw rate and shoot a top-25 percentage from the line.
The Beavers rank No. 210 in the updated KenPom ratings, owning the No. 197 adjusted offense and No. 215 adjusted defense. As for the NET rankings, Oregon State comes in at No. 201, going 1-2 against Quad 1, 0-3 against Quad 2, 8-6 against Quad 3 and 4-2 against Quad 4. Thursday’s game at San Francisco constitutes a Quad 2 matchup.
San Francisco Preview
The Dons battled through a high-profile nonconference slate, beating Minnesota, Mississippi State and Loyola Chicago while losing at Memphis and Saint Louis and on neutral floors against Colorado and Nevada. San Francisco carried that into a 3-1 start to WCC play, but are 3-6 since falling in double-overtime at LMU on January 8. They haven’t recorded back-to-back wins in that stretch, either, losing to St. Mary’s twice, No. 8 Gonzaga and Santa Clara once apiece and LMU yet again.
Junior guard Ryan Beasley is the Dons’ leading scorer with 14.0 points per game, on top of pacing the team with 3.7 assists a night. He dropped 30 against LMU on February 4, but sandwiched that explosion with a pair of single-digit scoring performances. Rhode Island transfer David Fuchs is averaging 11.6 points and 7.0 rebounds per game, while sophomore Tyrone Riley IV is putting up 11.4 points and 5.2 boards per game. Riley is one of six Dons who shoots above 36.5% from deep, alongside Mookie Cook, Junjie Wang, Legend Smiley, Guillermo Diaz Graham and Veniamin Abosi.
The Dons rank No. 84 in the country in both three-point attempts and makes, good for a three-point percentage that ranks No. 4 in the WCC. They rank dead-last in the conference in steals per game, but they also turn the ball over the second-least often.
Per the latest KenPom ratings, the Dons rank No. 97 on offense, No. 140 on defense and No. 110 overall. They come in at No. 106 in the NET, going 0-5 against Quad 1, 3-3 against Quad 2, 4-2 against Quad 3 and 6-2 against Quad 4. Thursday’s game versus Oregon State constitutes a Quad 4 matchup.
Oregon State at San Francisco Pick, Best Bet
The Beavers have won each of their last two road games outright while covering a plus-8.5-point spread in three of their last four away from home. On the whole this year, Oregon State would have covered a plus-8.5-point spread in 18 of their 26 contests. They have struggled the most against teams ranked ahead of them in the WCC standings – Santa Clara, Gonzaga, St. Mary’s and Pacific – but have won or lost by fewer than nine points just once in their eight other conference games.
As for the Dons, they have only won by more than 8.5 points twice in WCC play. Both of those wins came against bottom-four teams in the conference, too, back on January 2 and 10. They have failed to notch a victory that comfortable in each of their last seven contests. After covering Thursday’s spread in five of their first six games this season, San Francisco has done so just four times in their last 20 games.
The concern when it comes to the Beavers’ chances of covering is their home/road splits. Look at their season series with Washington State, for example. Oregon State beat their former Pac-12 foe by 10 in Corvallis, but lost by 14 in Pullman. Considering the Beavers beat the Dons by eight at home, a 24-point swing like their one against the Cougars would mean they fail to cover.
Best Bet: Oregon State +8.5 (-110)
Oregon State vs. San Francisco FAQs
What time is Oregon State vs. San Francisco?
Tip-off for Oregon State vs. San Francisco is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET/6 p.m. PT.
What is Oregon State men’s basketball’s record?
Entering Thursday’s game vs. San Francisco, Oregon State men’s basketball is 13-13 overall and 6-7 in-conference.
What is the San Francisco men’s basketball’s record?
Entering Thursday’s game vs. Oregon State, San Francisco men’s basketball is 14-12 overall and 6-7 in-conference.
Where are the Oregon State Beavers in the Western Coast Conference men’s basketball standings?
Going into their game vs. San Francisco, Oregon State is tied for fifth in the Western Coast Conference men’s basketball standings.
Where are the San Francisco Dons in the Western Coast Conference men’s basketball standings?
Going into their game vs. Oregon State, San Francisco is tied for fifth in the Western Coast Conference men’s basketball standings.
