The North Texas Mean Green host the Memphis Tigers on Thursday night in an American Conference college basketball matchup. The game tips off at 9:00 p.m. EST in Denton, Texas.
The Tigers are listed as 1.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook with the total set at O/U 137.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and pick for this American Conference college basketball matchup.
North Texas vs. Memphis prediction, preview
North Texas has had a rough time in conference play so far. The Mean Green had a decent non-conference campaign, going 9-4, with the losses all coming to solid teams. However, the American slate has been a disaster, and the Mean Green have now lost four of their last five games. This is one of the worst offensive teams in the conference, scoring just 70.6 points per game this season. North Texas ranks a shocking 298th in the country in offensive rating this season. The saving grace is that the Mean Green are incredibly disciplined on the defensive end. They are one of the worst offensive teams in the nation, but rank 41st in the nation in defensive rating, as well as leading the American in points per game allowed.
Memphis’ season has been almost a reverse of North Texas’ season in terms of results. The Tigers had a really tough non-conference slate and lost to ranked teams like Purdue, Louisville and Vanderbilt, as well as other power conference teams like Ole Miss and Mississippi State. They were just 5-7 heading into conference play. That made it so Memphis would have to win its conference in order to get into the NCAA Tournament. That now looks like a real possibility. They are 7-4 in conference play, just 1.5 games behind South Florida for first place in the American. Memphis has some real talent, and if it can get some momentum heading into the conference tournament, it certainly has a chance to win it.
North Texas vs. Memphis pick
My best bet for this game is Memphis on the moneyline. North Texas is great on the defensive end of the floor, but so is Memphis. North Texas plays incredibly slow basketball, ranking 314th in the nation in tempo. The Mean Green will walk the ball up the floor and get it to a half-court set, using up the shot clock, trying to get the best possible look. Unfortunately, they just don’t have players with the scoring ability to create anything off the bounce. They also rank second-to-last in the American in three-point attempts, lacking any real shooting threat. Memphis ranks 31st in the nation in defensive rating and should completely shut them down.
While Memphis is not a great offensive team either, it will push the tempo. Memphis ranks 59th in the country in adjusted tempo, a stark difference from how North Texas wants to play. If the Tigers can dictate that tempo, it could throw North Texas off and take away some of that elite half-court defense the Mean Green can play. Both of these teams defend well, but struggle to score at times. However, Memphis has proven that it can find ways to win games, while North Texas can’t. These teams faced off in Memphis on New Year’s Eve, and the Tigers held the Mean Green to just 47 points in a dominant win. Even with this one being on the road, Memphis should get the win.
