Just over a year ago, during the final of the second annual Emirates NBA Cup, the Milwaukee Bucks and Oklahoma City Thunder faced off with a title on the line. At that point, it seemed like the Thunder’s welcome to the national stage, but Giannis Antetokounmpo held the line for the veterans and Milwaukee ended up winning.
When the two teams face off at 7:30 p.m. ET in Oklahoma City, the situation could hardly look more different. The Thunder, though coming off of a championship and in first place in the West, will be without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (abdominal), Ajay Mitchell (abdominal), and, presumably, Jalen Williams (hamstring), and the Bucks won’t have Antetokounmpo (calf). They might also be without point guard Ryan Rollins (foot), who didn’t play yesterday against the Orlando Magic.
Even with its injury questions, Oklahoma City is a 13.5-point favorite (-750 on the Moneyline) for tonight’s game, with the point total set to 214.5. Milwaukee is +525 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ve laid out my three player prop bets from tonight’s inter-conference matchup.
Chet Holmgren to Record a Double-Double (+120)
Holmgren is set to make his first career All-Star appearance this coming weekend as part of the USA Stars team, and he’s going into the break in pretty good form. Across his last nine games, Holmgren has averaged 16.0 points and 9.3 rebounds per game, recording a double-double six times. He had a quiet game against the Phoenix Suns last night because he played just 20 minutes in the blowout victory, but he still managed to score 13 points, his 45th 10-plus-point game in 48 starts.
It isn’t much of a question as to whether or not he’ll record 10 points, especially against a team that has ranked just 22nd in defensive rating this season and has been among the league’s worst rim-protecting teams. The main question is his rebounding, given that he’s only had 18 10-rebound games this season. However, the Bucks are absolutely impotent on the boards without Antetokounmpo, as they’ve posted just a 46.8% rebounding percentage without him, 0.9 percentage points worse than the last-place Indiana Pacers. It’s also possible that the game will be a blowout and he play enough minutes to get to 10 boards, but that’s less likely with Williams sidelined.
A.J. Green 4+ Three-Pointers Made (+147)
Green has been on quite the roll in recent weeks, nailing four or more threes in four of his last five games, and with few other reliable scoring options in Milwaukee’s lineup, he should continue to have a large role. In Antetokounmpo’s earlier absences, he made at least four threes in three of the first seven games that he played without him and attempted eight threes in another, so his expanded responsibility should be legitimate. With a dearth of reliable offensive options — especially if Rollins doesn’t play — the Bucks might as well have Green launch.
The Thunder operate defensively by incentivizing opponents to drive into the elite teeth of their defense — anchored by Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein — before those opponents, fearing a block from either Holmgren or Hartenstein, kick it out for a three. As a result, Oklahoma City has given up the fourth-most catch-and-shoot threes this season and the third-highest percentage on such shots, though that could predominantly be a result of luck. Either way, the Thunder can’t bank on getting lucky against Green, who’s canned 43.1% of his catch-and-shoot threes, the third-highest percentage among the 23 players to attempt at least five such shots per game.
Cason Wallace 5+ Assists (+117)
Tonight, Oklahoma City will be without each of its top three playmakers, with Gilgeous-Alexander (6.4 assists per game), Williams (5.4), and Mitchell (3.7) all sidelined. While some additional playmaking could come from Hartenstein (3.6 assists per game), Wallace should continue to have lots of ball-handling responsibility. He’s recorded five or more assists in four of his last five games, four of which came without Gilgeous-Alexander, all of which came without Mitchell, and three of which came without Williams.
Meanwhile, Milwaukee has allowed the 12th-most assists per game this season. Without Antetokounmpo’s length, the Bucks lack the ability to impact passing lanes. Amir Coffey, dealt away at the trade deadline, provides some length even though he hadn’t graded as an above-average defender before this season, and Cole Anthony has made a positive defensive impact in two of the past three seasons. Their absences should make playmaking easier for Wallace. Plus, the Thunder’s faster-than-average pace should ratchet up the number of possessions.
