The USA is a -2400 favorite to win this one, and the puck line is set at -3.5 on the DraftKings Sportsbook. If you think the Latvians can pull an upset, they’re priced at +1200. The total for this game is set at 6.5 goals. Let’s dig into a prediction and pick for this game.
USA vs. Latvia Prediction
This will be our first chance to get a look at Team USA, who are second in odds to take home the gold medal. With so many of their players square in the middle of their primes, this is their chance to take home gold for the first time since 1980.
Here’s the first look at the lines they deployed in practice on Monday:
The Tkachuk brothers playing on the top line sure have to put some fear into their opponents. Both Brady and Matthew love a good scrap, lay down a lot of hits, and bring plenty of offensive talent to boot. Playing alongside Golden Knights star Jack Eichel makes for a formidable top three.
Their best goal scorer, Auston Matthews, centers the second line. The three-time Rocket Richard trophy winner will be on a well-balanced line with Jake Guentzel and Matt Boldy, two strong puck handlers who will do a great job setting up Matthews. Team USA’s checking line brings a lot of size with Kyle Connor, Dylan Larkin, and the hulking Tage Thompson, without being short on offensive talent. Their fourth line brings a similar mix between JT Miller, Brock Nelson, and Jack Hughes. That line brings a lot of veteran grit, and may see some rotation with Vincent Trocheck and Clayton Keller.
The defensive group is expected to have much more fluidity. Quinn Hughes will be a top liner and the No. 1 power play quarterback, and would form an elite offensive pairing with Charlie McAvoy. The second pairing is awfully interesting with up-and-coming star Brock Faber alongside savvy defensive veteran Jaccob Slavin. Seeing how the last pairing shakes out will be interesting; Jake Sanderson and Zach Werenski took the ice, but Jackson LaCombe and Noah Hanifin will make a good case for inclusion in the top six.
There may also be a legit goalie controversy at some point in these Olympics. Connor Hellebuyck is a great number one, but Jake Oettinger is right on his tail. I’d expect Connor for the first game, but at the first sign of struggle, Jake will be there.
The Latvian team does not have the same depth of talent. Their chances start from the crease; they have two NHL goaltenders, Elvis Merzlikins and Arturs Silovs. Alongside a strong vet in Kristers Gudlevskis, it’s a good group of backstops.
Florida Panthers defenseman Uvis Balinskis is their lone NHL blueliner and brings a good defensive presence. Otherwise, they’ll rely on familiarity in that group to win out over talent. Up front, Canucks forward Teddy Blueger and Lightning forward Zemgus Girgensons will be counted on for most of the offense. Rudolfs Balcers and Eduards Tralmaks have plenty of talent that could make a difference here.
It’s a narrow path to victory for the Latvians. Can they pull a huge upset and put Team USA on the back foot?
USA vs. Latvia Pick
Latvia has the potential to play over their head with their situation in the crease. But this is an overwhelming amount of offensive talent to deal with. The USA will get off to a roaring start offensively and get settled defensively to make this a comfortable win.
