#6 UConn (22-2, 12-1) hit a speed bump last week, dropping a pivotal matchup vs. #17 St. John’s. Still, the Huskies remain the team to beat in the Big East. They’ll look to pad their resume this evening against Butler (13-11, 4-9). The Bulldogs enter this one on a losing streak, having dropped four straight. Can Thad Matta’s crew bounce back against elite competition?
UConn enters tonight as 11.5-point favorites (-102) over Butler. The total is set at 144.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Wednesday’s game between the Huskies and Bulldogs.
UConn vs. Butler prediction, preview
In spite of their loss last Friday, the Huskies are still in a great spot. Dan Hurley’s group possesses the perfect combination of talent and experience to make another deep March Madness run. It all starts with the team’s three marquee upperclassmen. Alex Karaban is the veteran, enjoying his fifth season on campus. Through 24 games, the forward is averaging 13.5 points, 5.5 rebounds and 2.3 assists to go with 48/42/82 shooting splits. Guard Solo Ball also deserves mention as the initiator of UConn’s offense. The junior is putting up 14.0 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 1.5 assists per game. To round out this trio, Tarris Reed Jr. has been excellent down low (14.0 PPG, 7.1 REB).
It’s not as if Connecticut is a three-man show. Supporting pieces such as Braylon Mullins, Silas Demary Jr. and Eric Reibe have all impressed. A clean bill of health heading into Wednesday’s contest should have the Huskies feeling confident. If there’s an area of improvement for this squad, it’s scoring. Per KenPom, UConn wields the nation’s 28th-best adjusted offensive efficiency (121.7). That’s a step below some other championship contenders. Still, this feels like nitpicking; there’s little to suggest the Huskies can’t take home their third national title in four years.
Safe to say, it’s looking like an uphill climb for Butler. Making matters worse tonight, freshman Azavier Robinson is out, while Jamie Kaiser is questionable. The latter ranks third on the roster with 9.6 points per game. If there’s a glass half full take, only two names truly matter for the Bulldogs. Finley Bizjack and Michael Ajayi have formed one of college basketball’s most lethal duos. Together, the two are putting up 33.7 points, 13.8 rebounds and 5.4 assists per game. That level of combined production makes it difficult for defenses to prioritize stopping one over the other.
Ajayi leads the Big East with an average of 11.6 rebounds. However, those numbers might inflate Butler’s presence down low. The team is only blocking 3.3 shots per game, fourth-worst in the conference. In addition, any frontcourt strength risks being neutralized by big men Reed Jr., Karaban and Reibe. In a sense, there isn’t anything the Bulldogs do much better than UConn. On the flip side, this Huskies defense is far and away the superior unit. Connecticut has the pieces to slow down Bizjack on the perimeter. The same can’t be said when Ball, Demary Jr. and Mullins are handling the rock.
UConn vs. Butler pick, best bet
When these teams last met on December 16th, UConn came out on top with a 79-60 win. A similar margin of victory will be harder to come by tonight at Hinkle Fieldhouse. Still, the Bulldogs enter this one shorthanded without Kaiser and Robinson. To make matters worse, Butler has dropped four straight games. That includes letdowns against Big East bottom feeders such as Marquette and Providence. It’s difficult to imagine a rapid turnaround against Hurley and company.
