Seton Hall (16-8, 6-7) is in desperate need of a win, still hanging around the NCAA Tournament bubble. For the Pirates, taking down opponents with an inferior record is mandatory between now and March. That makes Wednesday’s matchup with Providence (11-13, 4-9) a must-win for the home team. Can the Friars deliver a crushing blow to their conference rivals?
Seton Hall enters tonight as 4.5-point favorites (-108) over Providence. The total is set at 150.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Wednesday’s game between the Friars and Pirates.
Providence vs. Seton Hall prediction, preview
This season has been a major disappointment for Providence, led by head coach Kim English. Among several issues with the Friars, a troubling lack of defense stands out. This group is giving up 85.6 points per game to its opponents, 360th among 365 Division I schools. That number is due in part to a rapid-fire offensive tempo, 17th-quickest in the nation according to KenPom. Regardless, the effort simply hasn’t been good enough on that end of the floor.
With that being said, PC certainly knows how to score. Four different players on this roster are averaging at least 12.0 points per game. Leading the charge is Jason Edwards, who just made his return from injury last weekend. The senior is pacing Providence with 17.6 points in addition to 3.0 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game. Backcourt partner Jaylin Sellers (17.1 PPG) has also impressed. In the frontcourt, Stefan Vaaks (15.5 PPG) and Jamier Jones (12.1 PPG) have been reliable contributors. Still, these statistics are all somewhat misleading. A frenetic offense means more opportunity to put up numbers, even if it comes at the cost of quality defense.
In many ways, Seton Hall is the exact opposite of Providence. Projected to finish at the bottom of the conference, Shaheen Holloway’s crew has surpassed all expectations. They’ve done so by out-working bigger, more talented rivals. Still, effort can only get you so far. The Pirates have hit a wall recently, dropping five of their last seven games. That includes a brutal 68-67 loss to Creighton over the weekend. Still, a return to South Orange tonight could be just what the doctor ordered.
The Pirates possess a tenacious defense, stifling even the most prolific scorers. Their 94.2 adjusted defensive efficiency is good enough for 13th on KenPom. Notching a few buckets is the bigger challenge for this squad. Adam ‘Budd’ Clark, A.J. Staton-McCray and TJ Simpkins take on most of the offensive burden. However, no member of that trio is averaging 12.0 points per game. Seton Hall is making just 31.1% of its three-point attempts, the worst mark among all Big East schools. However, SHU takes less than 16 attempts per game from beyond the arc, so it’s not a major component of the offense.
Providence vs. Seton Hall pick, best bet
Say what you will about The Hall, but this group can hang tough with anyone; the same can’t be said of Providence. A potent offense has led to some success for the Friars, but they might be the Big East’s most inconsistent team. The Pirates are, if nothing else, predictable. They’re going to make PC work for everything, and ideally slow things down to a crawl. At home, I’ll take my chances with Seton Hall.
