The NASCAR Cup Series waves the green flag on the 2026 season on Sunday.
As is the tradition, the season begins with a bang at Daytona. Super-speedway racing is chaotic. The entire field locks together in a pack and rips around the track at 200 mph. Inches separate the stock cars. A lot can go wrong. A lot does go wrong. This is a week to chase the long shots.
Daytona 500 Best Bets
Race Winner: William Byron (+1100)
No one has ever won three Daytona 500s in a row. Most drivers do not even finish two in a row. The survival rate at a super speedway is below fifty percent. Survival can be luck. Wins are lucky, but not as lucky. Winning two in a row is not luck. Byron knows what he is doing. Hendrick knows what they are doing. Their Chevys are fast, and crew chief Rudy Fugle is making the right calls in the race.
This is a great weekend to chase long odds and a big pay day. It’s also a great weekend to get good odds on an exceptional driver. Byron may be the greatest super speedway driver of all time. Chill Will is rarely mentioned in the conversation because he is phlegmatic, but he is automatic. He wins and barely grins. It’s just another day at the track. He won the 2025 regular series title by being consistent. He’ll look to maintain that consistency by winning his third Daytona 500 in a row and sixth super speedway race.
That’s it for the favorites. A strong case can be made for each driver at the top of the board. Their payouts are rewarding. A stronger case can be made for the bottom. These are serious pay days. This is not betting that Cinderella runs the table in March. The long shots can win and have won.
Race Winner: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+4000)
Sunday could be insane. NASCAR changed the playoff requirements. A win doesn’t mean a driver is in. Points matter. This could result in more drivers chasing stage points. This adds aggression to early segments of the Daytona 500. Aggression doesn’t go well at Daytona. It results in wrecks and knocking out contenders. Aggression also benefits the aggressive. No one is more reckless than “Wrecky Spinhouse.” DNFs are common, but wins aren’t that rare either. This is a bet to win, not a top-10 finish. It’s all or nothing, so checkers-or-wreckers drivers are the play.
Stenhouse has four career wins — two at Daytona and two at Talladega. He’s a former long shot winner of the Daytona 500 in 2023. The last thing a gambler wants is a driver that lays up. A driver that is happy to have four wheels pointing straight at the end is not the driver to pick. The unhappy and hungry driver is the pick.
Race Winner: Michael McDowell (+4500)
Front Row Motorsports was always a contender at plate tracks. David Ragan stole a super speedway win at Talladega. Michael McDowell won the 2021 Daytona 500. McDowell is no longer with FRM, but Spire Motorsports is just as capable. Also, among the super speedways, Daytona is McDowell’s best track.
Race Winner: John Hunter Nemechek (+6500)
Truth be told, any and all of the drivers with long odds are worth a flier. The simple case isn’t statistical. It is, but not personal. What matters is not the racer’s stats. It’s the race’s stats. It’s Daytona. Half of the field gets wiped out. Any driver can survive and make a mad dash at the end. Although driver stats do not matter, JHN has the best in the series. Albeit a small sample size of six Daytona races, Nemechek’s average finish is the best among the field. To finish first, first one must finish.
