The college basketball season is heating up, and the hierarchy of teams is starting to take shape. The No. 2-ranked Michigan Wolverines are near the top of the mountain and will visit the Northwestern Wildcats on Wednesday night.
Michigan enters as a 15.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. Northwestern sits as a +900 underdog, with the game total set at 154.5 points.
Michigan vs. Northwestern preview
Michigan sits in second place in the AP Poll with an impressive 22-1 record, its lone loss coming against Wisconsin on Jan. 10. The program has bounced back from the narrow defeat and rides an eight-game winning streak into Evanston. The Wolverines are 12-11 against the spread, falling under the game total in 14 of 23 games.
Dusty May’s squad is scoring 91 points per game, which ranks sixth in the country. They rank fifth in offensive rating, sixth in field-goal percentage, 78th in three-point percentage, and eighth in rebounds. On the other end, Michigan has held opponents to 68.6 points per contest, which ranks 54th in the nation. They boast the country’s top defensive rating while ranking second in opponent field-goal percentage and 15th in opponent three-point efficiency.
UAB transfer Yaxel Lendeborg headlines the production with 14.3 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 3.2 assists per game. Morez Johnson Jr. adds 13.6 points and 7.3 rebounds, while leading the Big Ten with a 67.0% field-goal percentage. Aday Mara and Trey McKenney each average double figures, while UNC transfer Elliot Cadeau plays a significant role as well. Nimari Burnett, Roddy Gayle Jr., L.J. Cason, and Will Tschetter each round out most of the notable rotation.
Northwestern has slipped to 10-14 this season and is just 2-11 in Big Ten play. The program enters this matchup on a three-game losing streak, dropping nine of its last 11. The Wildcats are 9-13-2 against the spread, holding a record of 12-11-1 for the over/under.
Chris Collins’ team is producing 75 points per game, which ranks 218th out of the 365 qualifying D1 teams. Northwestern sits 67th in offensive rating, 139th in field-goal percentage, 298th in three-point percentage, and 331st in rebounds per game. They also rank 100th in defensive rating, 142nd in opponent field-goal percentage, and 117th in opponent three-point percentage.
Nick Martinelli is the team’s leading scorer, performing as sort of a one-man show on offense. The 2024-25 All-Big Ten team member is leading the conference with 22.7 points on a scorching 47.1% clip from deep, also adding 6.4 rebounds. Arrinten Page adds 10.9 points and 4.7 rebounds, while Jayden Reid pitches in 10.2 points and 5.1 assists. Tre Singleton, Angelo Ciaravino, Max Green, and Jake West round out most of the notable rotation.
Michigan vs. Northwestern pick, best bet
Michigan has been one of the clear top teams in college basketball all season — ranked second in the country for a reason. They also have shown an impressive ability to dominate inferior opponents, with their +22.3 average margin of victory being the second-best in college basketball. 15.5 points is a significant spread, but 13 of the team’s 22 wins have come by at least 16 points.
Northwestern has struggled against far worse opponents. The biggest concern in this game is the clear discrepancy in the rebounding department. The Wildcats rank 331st out of 365 qualifying teams in rebounds per game, also sitting 242nd in opponent boards. Meanwhile, Michigan has dominated the glass all season. The Wolverines rank in the country’s top ten in rebounding, and they hold opponents to the 50th-fewest boards.
Sometimes, three-point shooting can be the great equalizer — but don’t expect that to be the case on Wednesday night. Northwestern ranks 312th in threes per game, while Michigan boasts some of the top perimeter pressure in the country.
Northwestern’s one-dimensional offense will likely be in deep trouble if Nick Martinelli can’t put forth a heroic scoring display. Expect Michigan to deploy its plethora of defensive stoppers to contain the Wildcats star.
Michigan is the better team on both sides of the ball — well beyond what the 15.5-point spread suggests. The Wolverines have consistently beaten teams by lofty margins and should replicate that success on Wednesday night. Expect them to shut down Northwestern’s offense, dominate the boards, and steadily stretch their lead to at least 16 points by the final whistle.
