UPDATE: Per ESPN’s Dave McMenamin, the Lakers have ruled out guard Luka Dončić (hamstring), LeBron James (foot arthritis), Austin Reaves (calf injury management), and Marcus Smart (ankle soreness) for tonight’s game. Center Deandre Ayton (knee) is questionable.
The Los Angeles Lakers’ pivotal stretch — a series of 15 home games out of 18 — has gotten off to a mixed start, as Los Angeles is 2-1 but just lost Luka Dončić for a still-to-be-determined amount of time as he deals with a mild hamstring strain. The Lakers lost last night against the Shai Gilgeous-Alexander-less Oklahoma City Thunder and will arguably have an even tougher test tonight when the San Antonio Spurs come to Crypto.com Arena for a 10:30 p.m. ET matchup.
Los Angeles hasn’t yet released its injury report, but its biggest question is undoubtedly the status of Dončić, who didn’t suit up yesterday and isn’t widely expected to be available. San Antonio is completely healthy, with no member of its regular rotation listed with an injury designation.
The Spurs are 9.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-340 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 227.5. The Lakers are +270 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this potential playoff preview and offer a prediction.
San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Lakers preview, prediction
As if San Antonio needed any more validation for its young core, reigning Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle earned his first career Western Conference Player of the Week nod after becoming the first player since Wilt Chamberlain to record a 40-point triple-double on 75% or better from the field. His exploits allowed Victor Wembanyama to have a fairly quiet night, as he had just 16 points and 11 boards, but despite low usage and a balky jumper as of late, Wembanyama has still been as effective as ever, especially on the defensive end. Thanks to strong play from all four members of their core, the Spurs have climbed within four games of Oklahoma City atop the West.
Los Angeles should feel pretty confident once Dončić returns from his injury, given how strong Austin Reaves has looked in his four games off the bench since returning from a calf strain. Across that span, Reaves has scored at least 15 points in each game, including a 35-point performance in a win against the Philadelphia 76ers, and he’s made 63.3% of his two-pointers. Luke Kennard has played two solid games since joining at the trade deadline from the Atlanta Hawks, making three of his six triples and even recording a steal in each contest. His shooting and off-ball perimeter gravity could help Los Angeles open up easier shots for Dončić and Reaves.
Spurs at Lakers pick, best bet
If Dončić ends up playing, it would somewhat change the tenor of the game, as he ranks eighth in the league in touches per game and third in time of possession, but his presence hasn’t actually changed the Lakers’ fortunes that much on either side of the ball, perhaps a byproduct of having three primary playmakers in Dončić, Reaves, and LeBron James. Los Angeles’ offense has slightly dipped with Dončić off the floor, from a 119.7 offensive rating to a 115.6 mark, and its defense has improved marginally. Thanks to Reaves and James, the Lakers are more suited to survive Dončić’s absence than the Dallas Mavericks had been earlier in his career.
That doesn’t mean that Los Angeles is in a good position, with or without Dončić, to take down a fully-healthy San Antonio team. To be fair, the Lakers could do a better job than most teams against the Spurs inside, given that they’ve recorded the highest field goal percentages from both the restricted area and the non-restricted paint, but San Antonio has been a top-tertile team at getting downhill, and Los Angeles has been among the league’s worst rim-protecting teams. Wembanyama is most easily neutralized when he’s forced to shoot instead of being allowed to drive. Though the Lakers did a good job of that the first two times they faced him, Los Angeles has been below-average at keeping opponents away from the rim in addition to its weak rim protection as of late.
The Lakers could make up for some of their disadvantages inside with strong rebounding if Dončić plays. Los Angeles’ 51.1% total rebounding percentage with Dončić on the court is the equivalent of the league’s eighth-best mark and only slightly worse than the Spurs’ 51.5%, but without Dončić, the Lakers have snagged rebounds at the equivalent of the league’s ninth-lowest rate. Los Angeles has also been among the league’s most disciplined teams offensively as well as among its best at drawing fouls, though being without Dončić, who leads the league in free-throw attempts per game, would hurt. Ball security will be the Lakers’ key, since San Antonio ranks near the league lead in opponent points off of turnovers and opponent fast-break points.
Three-point shooting will be critical for both teams. In part because Wembanyama effectively shuts off the paint with his presence, the Spurs give up an above-average number of wide-open threes, and with or without Dončić, Los Angeles has plenty of raw shooting talent. Reaves, Dončić, and Rui Hachimura also rank in the league’s top 40 in three-point percentage over expectation, and while Kennard hasn’t shot the ball enough to qualify, he leads the league in three-point percentage overall. On the other end of the floor, the Lakers have done a good job closing out on opposing shooters, and San Antonio is short on shooting, with Castle and De’Aaron Fox both being less accurate from deep than would be expected given shot quality.
The Spurs’ likely dominance inside as both a good rim-protecting and finishing team could be the reason for a romp, but Los Angeles has a real chance to keep it close if its shooters end up playing well and if it can stay aggressive and force Wembanyama into foul trouble, as he was for much of the Lakers’ November 5 win. San Antonio should still be favored, but Los Angeles could definitely cover the spread, especially if Dončić plays.
