Purdue vs. Nebraska College Basketball prediction, preview
The game of the night in college hoops comes in the Big Ten, with Purdue going on the road to Nebraska. Both teams rank among the elite in college basketball, but have had some recent struggles. The Boilermakers had a three-game losing streak, falling at UCLA, then at home to Illinois, then on the road in a rivalry game at Indiana. Purdue has since bounced back with a blowout win over Maryland, but did go down to the wire on Saturday as an 18.5-point favorite over a bad Oregon team.
Nebraska finally slipped up at Michigan, but hung around to lose by just three points as a double digit underdog, despite missing a couple of its best players. The Huskers returned home and lost to a very good Illinois team, in what was a revenge game for the Illini, who lost at home to Nebraska earlier in the season. The Huskers got their bounce-back over the weekend with a road win at Rutgers.
Tuesday marks just the second time this season Purdue has been priced as the underdog, winning at Alabama back in November in a game the Tide got dominated on the glass. While the Boilermakers have a size advantage in this game as well, Nebraska has held its own against bigger teams like Michigan and Illinois.
Purdue has been struggling covering numbers for a while now, going just 1-8 ATS over the last nine games. That said, the Boilermakers find ways to win, and are 5-2 on the road this season. The Huskers are 12-1 at home, with the recent loss coming to Illinois. Historically speaking, this has been a tough place for Purdue to play, going 1-5 ATS over the last six trips.
I lean to Nebraska on the moneyline at home, but feel the stronger play is the total. The Boilermakers are 5-2 to the under in road games this season, a trend that dates back to last season — 11-4 to the under over the last 15 road games overall. Nebraska has been an under machine this season. The Huskers are 10-2 to the under over their last 12 games overall, and 12-1 to the under at home this season.
While both offenses are capable of going off, Purdue has struggled more on the road. If we remove the 93 points against a poor Maryland team, Purdue scored 69 points or fewer in its three previous road games against Indiana, UCLA and USC. The Boilermakers have an improving defense and the size to both Nebraska’s offense. The Huskers rank 11th defensively on KenPom, and have held nine of their last 10 opponents at home to 66 points or less.
CBB Pick: UNDER 148.5 (-110)
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