Unlike last season, the SEC doesn’t have an abundance of title contenders. However, what this conference lacks in elite clubs, it makes up for in depth. One of the better teams in the conference is #21 Arkansas (17-6, 7-3), helmed by legendary head coach John Calipari. Can LSU (14-9, 2-8) pull off an upset in Baton Rouge?
Arkansas enters as 4.5-point favorites (-112) over LSU. The total is set at 159.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Tuesday’s game between the Razorbacks and Tigers.
Arkansas vs. LSU prediction, preview
The Razorbacks come into this one on a roll, having won four of their last five contests. That includes an 85-81 win over LSU at home on January 24th. Entering the rematch, Arkansas wields one of college basketball’s most potent scoring attacks. Per KenPom, the Hogs rank sixth in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency (125.8). Leading the charge is freshman standout Darius Acuff. The guard is averaging 20.5 points per game, fourth in the SEC. In addition, he leads the conference with 6.3 assists a night.
Joining Acuff is backcourt mate Meleek Thomas. The freshman is putting up 15.0 points, 3.4 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game. If there’s a knock on this group, it’s a lack of size. Unlike previous Coach Cal clubs, there isn’t a dominant center on Arkansas’ roster. Trevon Brazile is solid (12.8 PPG, 7.0 REB), but no other Razorbacks are snagging more than 4.8 rebounds per game.
On the flip side, LSU will look to exploit this potential weakness with center Michael Nwoko. The 6’10” big man ranks third on the Tigers with 13.7 points per game. He’s joined by the team’s top option, Max Mckinnon. Through 23 games, the Australian has posted 15.1 points, 2.6 rebounds and 2.6 assists while shooting 42.4% from the field. At full strength, this is a lethal offense. However, a nagging foot injury to guard Dedan Thomas Jr. leaves Louisiana State shorthanded.
The bigger issue for LSU comes on the other end of the floor. The Tigers own a 107.2 defensive rating, the sixth-worst mark among all SEC schools. Granted, they have seen some modest improvement in that regard with Thomas Jr. off the floor. Regardless, a slight defensive boost doesn’t overcome the guard’s absence on offense. Louisiana State ranks inside the conference’s bottom half in steals (6.0) and blocks (4.1) per game. It’s unlikely that changes much on Tuesday; Arkansas is turning the ball over just 9.3 times per game. That number leads all SEC programs this season.
Arkansas vs. LSU pick, best bet
In many regards, LSU is better than its 2-8 in-conference record would suggest. After all, the Tigers wield a balanced, dynamic offense that has multiple ways to beat opponents. To boot, Arkansas will likely be without role players D.J. Wagner and Karter Knox. Still, the Hogs remain one of the nation’s most well-balanced groups. In addition, Louisiana State doesn’t seem capable of dominating the glass, a major weakness for the Razorbacks. Expect the visitors to deliver another impressive victory tonight.
