With the Super Bowl now in the rear-view mirror and the MLB regular season not set to start until March 25, the NBA can firmly take center stage in its stretch run.
The NBA’s turn in the spotlight will begin tonight with a 10-game slate, including the best team in the East facing its hottest and, on the other end of the spectrum, an all-time tank-off between the bottom two teams in the Western Conference (though it’s worth noting that the New Orleans Pelicans don’t have their first-round pick).
With two-thirds of the league in action, there are plenty of opportunities to bet on the stars and hundreds of prop bets available at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Of those hundreds, I’ve gone in and chosen my three favorites.
Top NBA prop bet picks
Ausar Thompson 3+ Steals (+211)
Thompson hasn’t produced quite as much buzz overall as his twin brother Amen with the Houston Rockets, or as much as his teammates Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren, but his Detroit Pistons wouldn’t be atop the Eastern Conference without his swarming defense. Since January 7, Thompson has averaged 2.7 steals and 1.1 blocks per game, recording at least three steals eight times in those 15 games, and the Pistons have had comfortably the league’s defense in that span.
It’d be hard to take any Detroit player’s offensive props against a Charlotte Hornets team that has shockingly had one of the league’s best defenses as of late. In fact, across the last 15 games, the Hornets have gone a league-best 12-3 and have allowed the fourth-fewest points, fewest rebounds, and sixth-fewest assists, and while there’s definitely some luck at play, I have enough reason to believe that Charlotte’s defense is mostly legitimate. But the Hornets have one major flaw: across that span, they’ve actually allowed the sixth-most steals per game.
Rudy Gobert 13+ Rebounds (+100)
The Minnesota Timberwolves were looking to make a move for the Milwaukee Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo at the trade deadline, but they ended up sticking with their current forward rotation of Julius Randle, Naz Reid, and Gobert. Gobert was quiet in yesterday’s defeat against the LA Clippers, but prior to that, he’d been on quite the tear, snagging at least 16 rebounds in three of his prior seven games. He’s actually averaging the third-highest offensive rebounding percentage of his potential Hall of Fame career.
Gobert has a great matchup tonight in the Atlanta Hawks, who have recorded the league’s lowest rebounding percentage since trading Trae Young for CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert. Though the Hawks’ starting lineup — Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels, Zaccharie Risacher, Jalen Johnson, and Onyeka Okongwu — has plenty of length and athleticism, McCollum and Kispert, who both receive significant minutes off the bench, aren’t threats on the glass. The only center Atlanta added at the deadline was Jock Landale, but the Memphis Grizzlies were better on the glass without him.
James Harden 22+ Points (-122)
This would hardly be a post-trade deadline edition of NBA prop bets without including a player who switched teams during the deadline, and arguably the most notable player moved during the deadline was The Beard. Harden had a strong Cleveland Cavaliers debut, scoring 23 points and making five of his eight three-pointers in 32 minutes as the Cavaliers beat the Sacramento Kings. He probably can’t be expected to make more than half of his threes again, given how inconsistent his jumper has been this season, but his usage rate will probably go up if Jarrett Allen doesn’t have as hot of a hand as he did.
The Denver Nuggets are a pretty friendly matchup for Harden. The Nuggets have struggled mightily with their defense this season, ranking seventh-to-last in defensive rating, and with Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson both out for several more weeks with hamstring strains, they are without two of their defensive anchors. While shooting guard Christian Braun, who recently returned to the lineup after a series of ankle injuries, is a solid defender, he’ll likely get the primary Donovan Mitchell assignment, leaving Jamal Murray or Julian Strawther to handle Harden. Harden also likes to drive, and Denver has been the league’s fourth-worst rim-protecting team.
